Cryptocurrency or Stocks: Where Are Russian Investors' Money Really Flowing?
In the fall of 2025, Bitcoin updated its all-time high, but this was followed by a prolonged correction. Simultaneously, Russia is tightening regulation of digital currencies, while the stock market operates under clear rules and consistently pays dividends. The expert community has naturally raised the question: has a massive capital outflow of Russian retail investors from crypto to stocks begun? Analysis shows that the answer is not so clear-cut.
Capital Flow: Myth or Reality?
Expert opinions on this issue are divided. Alexander Peresichan, CEO of TEKHNOBIT, confirms some movement of funds. According to him, after Bitcoin's peak, some investors indeed locked in profits or simply grew tired of volatility. Activity on crypto exchanges has declined, while the stock market in 2026 offered attractive dividends and transparent reporting. Stricter regulation has only added uncertainty, pushing some players toward legal instruments. However, Peresichan himself clarifies: the scale of this flow is still insignificant.
However, other experts surveyed disagree with this thesis. Yaroslav Kabakov from IC "Finam" is categorical: he does not observe a massive transfer of funds from crypto to stocks. In his opinion, these are fundamentally different investment strategies, and their audiences overlap only partially.
Fyodor Ivanov from the operator "SHARD" sees the opposite dynamic. Analyzing the state of the Russian securities market, he notes an outflow of funds from stocks. Capital, he says, is moving into bank savings and current consumption, not into cryptocurrencies.
Yan Pinchuk from WhiteBird adds a weighty argument. He points to the fwd P/E multiplier of the Russian market, which is only 3.7 compared to the historical average of 6.2 over the last 10 years. This means that the valuation of domestic companies is more than 60% below the norm. Such low valuations, in his opinion, completely refute the hypothesis of an inflow of private money into stocks. The reason lies in geopolitical pressure, sanctions, and the high key interest rate of the Central Bank.
Risk and Return: Crypto vs. Stocks
In assessing the risk-return ratio, experts were more unanimous. Both Russian stocks and cryptocurrencies are considered risky assets. However, as Roman Nosov from "BCS World of Investments" notes, the risks and expected returns of digital coins are an order of magnitude higher. After deep corrections, both in crypto and the stock market, returns can be very high. Nevertheless, over a one-year horizon, the overall risk of cryptocurrency remains undoubtedly higher.
Yaroslav Kabakov agrees with this position, emphasizing that "blue chips" offer much more predictable returns with significantly lower risk. Fyodor Ivanov adds an important qualitative difference: digital currencies have specific infrastructure risks (e.g., exchange hacks or key loss) that stocks fundamentally lack. Therefore, conservative investors will view the crypto market with caution, even despite the emergence of state regulation.
Do the Instruments Compete for the Same Investor?
Most analysts lean toward the theory of different audiences. Alexander Peresichan believes that users of these products differ greatly. Their overlap occurs mainly in the segment of experienced traders with a diversified portfolio. At the same time, among crypto buyers, there are many who categorically do not want to deal with official brokers and tax reporting. For them, cryptocurrency is simpler and faster. Therefore, even against the backdrop of stable "blue chips," the majority of retail investors, especially the young and risk-prone, consciously remain in crypto.
Fyodor Ivanov insists that cryptocurrencies in general cannot be considered a direct competitor to the securities market. The total capitalization of the entire crypto market at $2.4 trillion is incomparable to the capitalization of stocks. These are two completely different financial worlds. Yan Pinchuk suggests looking at the issue through the lens of economic cycles. According to him, the retail investor goes where the hype is. There is no hype in the Russian stock market, while the crypto industry is experiencing a crypto winter. These assets could actively compete in conditions of rapid growth, but such growth is not expected in the near future. At the same time, he assesses the expected return of Russian stocks over a 5–10 year horizon as very high and holds them as part of his own portfolio.
Cryptalist Analysis
My analysis confirms that the hypothesis of a massive capital outflow from crypto to stocks is not supported. Rather, we are observing stagnation in both markets for the retail investor in Russia. Crypto remains a niche for speculators willing to take extreme risks, while the stock market suffers from macroeconomic pressure and a lack of growth catalysts. The key takeaway for the investor: diversification between these asset classes remains not just a strategy, but a necessity, with a clear understanding that these are two completely different games with different rules and time horizons.