Crypto or stocks: where are Russian investors' money actually going?
In the fall of 2025, Bitcoin updated its all-time high, after which the market entered a prolonged correction. Against this backdrop, Russia tightened regulation of digital currencies, while the stock market, on the contrary, operates under clear rules and consistently pays dividends. It is logical to assume that the retail investor faces a difficult choice: where to direct capital?
My market analysis and survey of leading experts show that there is no clear answer to this question. Specialists are divided in their opinions, and their assessments differ not only in conclusions but also in the basic interpretation of the current market situation.
Is there a capital flow?
Alexander Peresichan from TEKHNOBIT notes that some funds have indeed flowed from crypto to stocks. The reason is profit-taking after Bitcoin's peak and fatigue from volatility. Activity on crypto exchanges has decreased, while the stock market in 2026 offered attractive dividends and transparency. Tightened regulation, in his opinion, only added uncertainty. However, he emphasizes: this concerns a small share of investors. There is a flow, but it is still small.
However, other experts disagree with this. Yaroslav Kabakov from Finam asserts that no mass movement of funds is observed. He views these directions as fundamentally different investment strategies. Fedor Ivanov from SHARD sees the opposite dynamic: rather, an outflow from stocks into bank savings and current consumption is noticeable.
Yan Pinchuk from WhiteBird does not record any flow into Russian stocks at all. He points to the forward P/E multiplier, which is only 3.7 against the historical average of 6.2 over 10 years. According to him, current valuations of domestic companies are more than 60% below the norm, which completely refutes the hypothesis of an inflow of private money into stocks. The reasons are geopolitics, sanctions, and the high Central Bank rate.
Risk and Return: Stocks vs. Crypto
In assessing the risk-return ratio, experts are much more unanimous. Roman Nosov from BCS reminds that both stocks and crypto are risky assets, but the risks and expected returns of digital coins are an order of magnitude higher. After a deep correction, returns in both segments could be high, but over a one-year horizon, the overall risk of cryptocurrency is certainly higher.
Yaroslav Kabakov agrees with this: "blue chips" offer much more predictable returns with significantly lower risk. Cryptocurrency, on the other hand, retains the potential for both super-profits and instant sharp losses.
Fedor Ivanov adds an important qualitative difference: digital currencies have specific infrastructure risks (hacks, loss of keys, exchange problems) that stocks fundamentally lack. Therefore, investors accustomed to traditional instruments will view the crypto market with caution, even despite the emergence of state regulation.
Do the instruments compete for the same investor?
Opinions diverge again, although the majority leans toward the theory of different audiences. Alexander Peresichan believes that users of these products differ greatly. They overlap only in the segment of experienced traders with a diversified portfolio. At the same time, there are many people in crypto who are willing to tolerate high volatility but categorically do not want to deal with official brokers and taxes. For this group, cryptocurrency seems much simpler and faster.
Fedor Ivanov insists that cryptocurrencies in general cannot be considered a direct competitor to the securities market. The current capitalization of the entire crypto market at $2.4 trillion is incomparable to the capitalization of stocks. These are two completely different financial worlds.
Yan Pinchuk suggests looking at the issue through the lens of economic cycles. It all depends on the specific phase: the retail investor goes where the hype is. There is no hype in the Russian stock market, and a crypto winter is raging in the crypto industry. These assets could actively compete for the same person in conditions of rapid growth, but such growth is not expected in the near future.
Conclusions of My Analysis
The majority of surveyed experts do not confirm the hypothesis of a mass flow of money from crypto to stocks. Only Alexander Peresichan records such movement, but calls its scale small. The others point to reverse or neutral dynamics.
In assessing risks, analysts are unanimous: crypto remains a more dangerous asset with high potential returns. Classic "blue chips" provide a predictable and less volatile result. On a short-term horizon of up to a year, the risks of digital currencies are inherently higher.
On the issue of competition for the end investor, the prevailing opinion is that of fundamentally different audiences. They overlap only in the narrow segment of experienced and diversified investors. The key factors here are the current market cycle and the presence of mass hype. During boom periods, these instruments could compete, but in conditions of mutual decline, there are virtually no points of intersection.
My professional opinion: the current situation is not so much a capital flow as its redistribution between different risk profiles. Crypto remains a tool for aggressive speculators, while stocks are for long-term investors seeking stability. As long as regulatory pressure on cryptocurrencies in Russia increases and the stock market offers historically low valuations, we are unlikely to see a mass exodus from one asset class to another. Rather, everyone will stay in their own niche.