Strait of Hormuz under threat: Iran breaks ceasefire — markets brace for shock
On June 20, 2026, the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Command, Iran's highest joint headquarters, announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping. The official reason is violations of the Islamabad Memorandum by the United States and Israel. This move not only shatters the fragile truce but also poses a direct threat to global energy supply chains.
The Iranian command's decision came as a surprise to markets, which had already begun pricing in a reduction in geopolitical risks after the signing of the 14-point memorandum in Islamabad on June 17. The agreement stipulated that Tehran would guarantee the safe passage of commercial vessels through the strait for the first 60 days, while the United States would, in turn, lift the naval blockade of Iranian ports. Tanker traffic began to recover, leading to a temporary decline in oil prices.
However, the new statement from the Iranian military effectively nullifies these agreements. The command describes the closure as a "first step" and warns of further measures if aggression continues. The casus belli cited is Israel's ongoing actions in Lebanon, which Tehran considers a violation of the memorandum.
Geopolitical Rift and Threat to Energy Security
Approximately 21 million barrels of oil and petroleum products are transported through the Strait of Hormuz daily—about 20% of global consumption and a quarter of all seaborne oil trade. Additionally, major export shipments of liquefied natural gas from Qatar and the UAE pass through the strait. Any disruptions in this region traditionally amplify price volatility, as alternative routes for Gulf countries are virtually nonexistent.
Notably, the closure of the strait has not yet been officially confirmed at the diplomatic level. U.S. Vice President JD Vance, in a recent speech, indicated the opposite, emphasizing a long-term strategy to neutralize Iran's nuclear ambitions. This creates an information vacuum and heightens uncertainty, which is extremely negative for markets.
Expert opinion: Markets have once again fallen into the classic "calm before the storm" trap. The Islamabad Memorandum was perceived as a signal of de-escalation, but reality turned out to be more complex. For both the cryptocurrency and traditional markets, this means a resurgence in demand for safe-haven assets and, likely, a short-term spike in oil prices. Traders should prepare for high volatility in the coming days.