Money of Russian investors: flight from crypto to stocks or a myth?
In the fall of 2025, Bitcoin updated its all-time high, after which a prolonged correction began in the market. At the same time, regulatory pressure on digital currencies is intensifying in Russia. The stock market, on the other hand, offers investors clear rules of the game, stable dividends, and transparent reporting. A logical question arises: are retail investors' funds flowing from crypto to stocks?
Is There a Flow?
Experts' opinions on this matter are divided. Alexander Peresichan, CEO of TECHNOBIT, confirms the existence of such movement, although he calls it insignificant. According to him, after Bitcoin's peak, many participants rushed to lock in profits or simply grew tired of volatility. Activity on crypto exchanges has declined, while the stock market in 2026 offered attractive opportunities: high dividends and transparency of issuers. Tighter regulation, in his view, only adds uncertainty, pushing some capital into legal and understandable instruments.
Yaroslav Kabakov, Director of Strategy at IC "Finam," holds a different view. He does not observe a massive shift of funds from crypto to stocks, considering these directions fundamentally different investment strategies. In his opinion, the audiences of these markets overlap only in the segment of experienced traders with a diversified portfolio.
Fyodor Ivanov, Director of Analytics for AML/KYT at operator "SHARD," describes a directly opposite dynamic. He records an outflow of funds from stocks, not an inflow. According to his data, capital is moving into bank savings and current consumption.
Yan Pinchuk, Deputy Head of Exchange Trading at WhiteBird, is also skeptical. He points to the fwd P/E multiplier of the Russian market, which is only 3.7 compared to the historical average of 6.2 over the last 10 years. Such low valuations, in his opinion, completely refute the hypothesis of an inflow of retail funds into stocks. The Russian market, he says, is heavily undervalued due to geopolitics, sanctions, and the Central Bank's high key rate.
Risk and Return: Stocks vs. Crypto
In assessing the risk-return ratio, experts are much more unanimous. Roman Nosov, Director of Wealth Management at "BCS World of Investments," reminds that both stocks and crypto belong to risky asset classes. However, the risks and expected returns of digital coins are an order of magnitude higher. Over a one-year horizon, the total risk of cryptocurrency, he says, is certainly higher. Fyodor Ivanov adds that crypto has specific infrastructure risks (exchange hacks, key loss) that stocks fundamentally lack.
Do the Instruments Compete for the Same Investor?
Most analysts lean toward the theory of different audiences. Alexander Peresichan believes that users of these products differ greatly. The mass of retail investors—especially the young and risk-prone—consciously stays in crypto, avoiding the bureaucracy of official brokers and tax reporting. Yan Pinchuk suggests looking at the issue through the lens of economic cycles: retail investors go where the hype is. Currently, there is no hype in the Russian stock market, while the crypto industry is experiencing a crypto winter. During boom periods, these instruments could compete, but in conditions of mutual downturn, there are virtually no points of intersection.
Conclusions
The hypothesis of a massive flow of Russian retail investors' money from crypto to stocks does not find clear confirmation. Most of the experts surveyed either do not record such movement or call it insignificant. Cryptocurrency remains a riskier but also potentially more profitable asset, attracting its specific audience. The Russian stock market, meanwhile, is going through tough times, being valued significantly below historical norms.
My analysis: The market is in a phase of capital redistribution, but not between crypto and stocks, rather between risky assets and cash. Until a clear catalyst for growth appears in one of the segments—whether it be a reduction in the key rate in Russia or a new bull cycle in crypto—there will be no significant flow of funds. Investors are frozen in anticipation.