Cryptocurrency or Stocks: Where Are Russian Investors' Money Really Going?
In the fall of 2025, Bitcoin updated its all-time high, but this was followed by a prolonged correction. At the same time, regulation of digital currencies is tightening in Russia, while the domestic stock market operates under transparent rules and consistently rewards investors with dividends. This dichotomy presents retail investors with a difficult choice: where to allocate capital?
My analysis of opinions from leading market experts shows that there is no single answer to the question of capital flowing from crypto to stocks. There is a polarization of views, and each deserves attention.
Is there a flow? Opinions are divided
Alexander Peresichan from TEKHNOBIT notes that some movement of capital does exist. After Bitcoin's peak in the fall of 2025, many investors locked in profits, tired of volatility. Activity on crypto exchanges decreased, while the stock market, on the contrary, offered attractive dividends and transparency. Tightening regulation only added uncertainty, pushing some players toward legal instruments. However, Peresichan emphasizes that the scale of this flow is still insignificant and affects only a small portion of investors.
A contrasting view is held by Yaroslav Kabakov from Finam. He is categorical: there is no mass movement of funds from crypto to stocks. These two directions, in his opinion, represent fundamentally different investment strategies, and their audiences overlap only partially.
Fyodor Ivanov from SHARD even notes a reverse dynamic. According to his data, the Russian securities market is currently experiencing a capital outflow. Funds are moving not into stocks, but into bank savings and current consumption. This indicates a high degree of uncertainty and conservative investor behavior.
Finally, Yan Pinchuk from WhiteBird points to a fundamental factor: the forward P/E multiplier of the Russian market is only 3.7, compared to the historical average of 6.2 over 10 years. Such undervaluation, in his opinion, completely refutes the hypothesis of an inflow of retail money into stocks. If the flow were massive, valuations would be higher.
Risk and return: crypto vs. stocks
Here, experts are more unanimous. Roman Nosov from BCS reminds that both stocks and crypto in Russia are considered risky assets, but the risks of digital coins are an order of magnitude higher. After deep corrections, returns in both segments can be high, but on an annual horizon, the overall risk of cryptocurrency is certainly higher. Yaroslav Kabakov adds that blue chips offer more predictable returns with significantly lower risk, while crypto remains a field for both super-profits and instant losses.
Fyodor Ivanov emphasizes the specific infrastructure risks of crypto, which are fundamentally absent in stocks. Therefore, conservative investors will view the crypto market with caution, even despite the emergence of state regulation.
Do the instruments compete for the same investor?
Opinions diverge again, but the majority leans toward the theory of different audiences. Alexander Peresichan believes that users of these products differ greatly. They overlap mainly in the segment of experienced traders with a diversified portfolio. However, the mass of retail investors, especially the young and risk-prone, consciously stay in crypto, avoiding broker bureaucracy and tax reporting.
Fyodor Ivanov insists that cryptocurrencies cannot generally be considered a competitor to the stock market. The scale is incomparable: the entire crypto market capitalization of $2.4 trillion is a drop in the ocean compared to the stock market. These are two different financial worlds.
Yan Pinchuk suggests looking at the issue through the lens of economic cycles. Investors go where there is hype. Currently, there is no hype in the Russian stock market, while the crypto industry is experiencing a crypto winter. During boom periods, these instruments could compete, but under conditions of mutual decline, points of intersection are virtually absent.
My analysis and conclusions
The situation is more complex than it seems at first glance. The hypothesis of a mass flow from crypto to stocks does not find convincing confirmation. Rather, we are observing market fragmentation: conservative investors are moving into cash and deposits, risk-tolerant ones remain in crypto, and the stock market suffers from undervaluation and lack of demand. The key conclusion for me is that in current conditions, Russian stocks look extremely attractive for long-term investments, but this requires a catalyst—a reduction in the key rate or easing of geopolitical pressure. Until this happens, crypto and stocks will coexist in parallel universes, attracting different types of investors with different goals and risk tolerance.