Russian retail investor at a crossroads: is capital moving from crypto to stocks?
In the fall of 2025, Bitcoin updated its all-time high, but this was followed by a prolonged correction. At the same time, regulation of digital currencies is tightening in Russia, while the domestic stock market operates under clear rules and consistently pays dividends. Against this backdrop, a private investor faces a difficult choice: where to direct free capital? Are we currently witnessing a massive flow of funds from cryptocurrencies to stocks, or do these two instruments serve fundamentally different audiences?
Expert opinions are divided. Some analysts record capital movement but call it insignificant. Others are confident that there is no massive outflow, and current valuations of the Russian stock market, on the contrary, indicate an outflow of funds.
Is there an outflow? Data suggests otherwise
Alexander Peresichan, CEO of TEKHNOBIT, notes that some money from Russian investors is indeed moving from crypto to stocks. The reason is profit-taking after Bitcoin's peak and fatigue from high volatility. Activity on crypto exchanges has declined, while the stock market in 2026 has presented attractive opportunities: good dividends and transparent company reporting. The tightening of crypto asset regulation, in his opinion, adds uncertainty to the market. However, the expert emphasizes that this concerns only a small portion of investors.
Yaroslav Kabakov, Director of Strategy at IC "Finam," holds the opposite view. He claims that no massive movement of funds is observed. Moreover, these directions represent fundamentally different investment strategies. Fedor Ivanov, Director of Analytics for AML/KYT at operator "SHARD," even records the opposite dynamic: an outflow of funds from stocks to bank savings and current consumption. According to him, a significant portion of private capital is moving into "cash."
Yan Pinchuk, Deputy Head of Exchange Trading at WhiteBird, provides a compelling argument: the fwd P/E multiplier of the Russian market is only 3.7, compared to the historical average of 6.2 over the last 10 years. This means that current valuations of domestic companies are more than 60% below their average norm. In his opinion, such low valuations completely refute the hypothesis of an inflow of private money into stocks. Among the reasons are geopolitical pressure, sanctions, and an extremely high key rate from the Central Bank.
Risk and Return: Stocks vs. Crypto
In assessing the risk-return ratio, experts were much more unanimous. Roman Nosov, Director of Wealth Client Relations at "BCS World of Investments," reminds that both stocks and crypto belong to risky asset classes. However, the risks and expected returns from digital coins are an order of magnitude higher. On a one-year horizon, the overall risk of cryptocurrency, in his words, is certainly higher.
Yaroslav Kabakov fully agrees with this view. He notes that traditional "blue chips" offer investors much more predictable returns with significantly lower risk. Cryptocurrencies, on the other hand, consistently retain the potential for both super-profits and instant sharp losses.
Fedor Ivanov adds an important qualitative difference to the list: digital currencies always have specific infrastructure risks that are fundamentally absent in stocks. Investors accustomed to traditional instruments will view the crypto market with caution, even with the advent of state regulation.
Do the instruments compete for the same investor?
Analysts' opinions diverge again, although the majority lean toward the theory of different audiences. Alexander Peresichan believes that the users of these products differ greatly. They overlap mainly in the segment of experienced traders with a well-diversified portfolio. However, among those who buy crypto, there are many people willing to tolerate high volatility. For this group, cryptocurrencies appear much simpler and faster. Even if reliable "blue chips" are more stable, the bulk of retail investors—especially the young and risk-prone—consciously remain in crypto outside the traditional market.
Fedor Ivanov insists that cryptocurrencies in general cannot be considered a direct competitor to the securities market. The entire crypto market's capitalization of $2.4 trillion is incomparable to that of stocks. We are facing two completely different financial worlds.
Yan Pinchuk suggests looking at this issue solely through the lens of economic cycles. In his opinion, it all depends on the specific phase, and the private investor usually goes where the hype is. There is no hype in the Russian stock market, while the crypto industry is in the midst of a crypto winter. These assets could actively compete for the same person during a period of rapid growth, but such growth is not expected in the near future. At the same time, he estimates the expected return on Russian stocks over a 5-10 year horizon as very high and holds a portion of his portfolio in them.
Analyst's Conclusions from Cryptalist
The majority of surveyed experts do not confirm the hypothesis of a massive outflow of money from crypto to stocks. Only Alexander Peresichan records such movement but calls its scale small. At the same time, Yaroslav Kabakov speaks of the absence of massive transitions. Fedor Ivanov and Yan Pinchuk point to reverse or neutral dynamics—an outflow from stocks to savings and undervalued market valuations of companies.
In terms of risk assessment, analysts are unanimous: crypto remains a more dangerous asset with high potential returns. Classic "blue chips" show predictable and less volatile results. On a short-term horizon of up to one year, the risks of digital currencies are inherently assessed as higher.
On the issue of competition for the end investor, the prevailing opinion is that of fundamentally different audiences. They overlap only in the narrow segment of experienced and diversified investors. Key factors here are the current market cycle and the presence of mass hype. During boom periods, these instruments could indeed compete, but in conditions of mutual decline, there are virtually no points of intersection.
My expert view: The current situation is not an outflow, but rather profit-taking after a cycle. The Russian retail investor, especially the young one, still associates cryptocurrencies with fast and high returns, and stocks with long-term and boring stability. Until a new powerful catalyst emerges on the market capable of uniting these two audiences, we will observe their parallel but non-overlapping existence. For a conservative investor, Russian stocks at current levels look extremely attractive, but this requires patience and a willingness to wait.