Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz: fragile ceasefire collapses overnight
On June 20, 2026, the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Command, Iran's highest joint headquarters, officially announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping. The reason cited was violations of the Islamabad Memorandum by the United States and Israel. This decision fundamentally alters the landscape of global energy markets and threatens recent diplomatic achievements.
The Strait of Hormuz is an artery through which approximately 21 million barrels of oil and petroleum products pass daily, accounting for about 20% of global consumption and a quarter of all seaborne oil trade. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, any disruption in this region instantly impacts global prices. Blocking the strait is not just a local conflict but a direct blow to supply stability.
Statement from the Military Command
The Khatam al-Anbiya headquarters described the closure as a "first step" and warned of further measures if "aggression" continues. The conflict escalated after strikes by the U.S. and Israel in late February 2026, which led to earlier restrictions on passage through the strait. The situation has now entered a new, more dangerous phase.
It is important to note that major export shipments of liquefied natural gas from Qatar and the UAE also pass through the strait. There are virtually no alternative routes for Persian Gulf countries, making this region critically important for the entire global energy sector.
Disagreements Over the Islamabad Memorandum
The 14-point Islamabad Memorandum, agreed upon around June 17, 2026, stipulated that Iran would make maximum efforts to ensure the safe and free passage of commercial vessels during the first 60 days. The plan also called for the U.S. to lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports. Ship traffic began to recover after this agreement was reached, helping to lower energy prices.
However, the new statement from the Iranian army effectively nullifies these achievements. Tehran views Israel's ongoing actions in Lebanon as a violation of the memorandum. Previously, this document quickly led to a drop in oil prices, but the current situation once again draws attention to supply issues amid the potential for a prolonged supply shock.
It is worth emphasizing that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has not yet been officially confirmed—U.S. Vice President JD Vance indicates the opposite. However, markets have already reacted by pricing in the risk of long-term instability.
My analysis: The oil and cryptocurrency markets are currently in a zone of high turbulence. If the blockade is confirmed, we will see a sharp spike in energy prices, which could trigger a flight to safe-haven assets, including Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation. However, investors should be cautious: in a geopolitical crisis, liquidity can sharply contract, and volatility can reach extreme levels. Monitor confirmations from official sources.