Cryptocurrency vs. Stocks: Where Are Russian Investors' Money Really Going?
In the fall of 2025, Bitcoin updated its all-time high, but then the market entered a prolonged correction. Simultaneously, Russia is tightening regulation of digital currencies, while the stock market offers investors familiar rules of the game and stable dividends. In such a situation, a retail investor naturally wonders: isn't it time to shift funds from volatile crypto to more predictable stocks?
My colleagues and I conducted a survey among leading market experts, and their opinions were divided. Some note a small but noticeable outflow of capital from the crypto sphere, while others categorically deny a mass migration, pointing to fundamentally different investment strategies and audiences for these instruments.
Is there a flow?
Alexander Peresichan, CEO of TECHNOBIT, claims that some funds are indeed flowing. According to him, after Bitcoin's peak in the fall of 2025, many investors decided to lock in profits or simply grew tired of price swings. Activity on crypto exchanges has decreased, while the stock market, on the contrary, has presented attractive opportunities—high dividends and transparency of issuers. The tightening of crypto regulation adds uncertainty, pushing some players toward legal and understandable instruments. However, Peresichan clarifies: this concerns only a small share of investors.
However, other experts disagree. Yaroslav Kabakov, Director of Strategy at IC "Finam", believes there is no mass movement. He reasonably argues that crypto and stocks are fundamentally different investment strategies that rarely overlap for the same investor.
Fyodor Ivanov, Director of Analytics at AML/KYT operator "SHARD", sees the opposite dynamic: according to his data, there is currently an outflow of funds from stocks. Capital is moving into bank savings and current consumption, not into crypto.
Yan Pinchuk, Deputy Head of Exchange Trading at WhiteBird, also does not observe a flow into Russian stocks. He points to the fwd P/E multiplier, which is only 3.7 against the historical average of 6.2. This means valuations of Russian companies are more than 60% below their average norm. In his opinion, such low valuations completely refute the hypothesis of an inflow of retail money into stocks, despite an abundance of negative factors—from geopolitics to the high key rate of the Central Bank.
Risk and Return: Stocks vs. Crypto
In assessing the risk-return ratio, experts are more unanimous. Roman Nosov, Director of Wealth Management at "BCS World of Investments", reminds that both stocks and crypto belong to risky asset classes. However, the risks and expected returns of digital coins are an order of magnitude higher. After a deep correction in both segments, returns could be very high, but over a one-year horizon, the overall risk of cryptocurrency remains undoubtedly higher.
Yaroslav Kabakov agrees, noting that traditional "blue chips" offer much more predictable returns with significantly lower risk. Cryptocurrencies, meanwhile, consistently retain the potential for both super-profits and instant sharp losses.
Do the instruments compete for the same investor?
Opinions diverge again, but most lean toward the theory of different audiences. Alexander Peresichan believes that users of these products differ greatly. They overlap mainly in the segment of experienced traders with diversified portfolios. However, among those who buy crypto, there are many people willing to tolerate high volatility and categorically unwilling to deal with official brokers, taxes, and bureaucracy. For this group, cryptocurrencies seem much simpler and faster. Therefore, even if "blue chips" are more stable, the bulk of retail investors—especially the young and risk-prone—consciously stay in crypto.
Fyodor Ivanov insists that cryptocurrencies in general cannot be considered a direct competitor to the securities market. The current capitalization of the entire crypto market at $2.4 trillion is incomparable to the capitalization of stocks. These are two completely different financial worlds.
Yan Pinchuk suggests looking at the issue through the lens of economic cycles. In his opinion, it all depends on the specific phase, and the retail investor usually goes where the hype is. There is no hype in the Russian stock market, while the crypto industry is in the midst of a crypto winter. During boom periods, these instruments could actively compete for the same person, but in conditions of mutual downturn, there are virtually no points of overlap. At the same time, he assesses the expected return on Russian stocks over a 5-10 year horizon as very high and personally holds a portion of his portfolio in them.
Analyst's Conclusions
My analysis shows that the hypothesis of a massive flow of funds from Russian retail investors from crypto to stocks is not confirmed. There are only point movements of capital that do not change the overall picture. Crypto and the stock market remain parallel universes with different audiences, different risk profiles, and different growth drivers. As long as high volatility and regulatory uncertainty persist in the crypto sphere, and low valuations and a lack of "hype" prevail in the stock market, these instruments are unlikely to directly compete for the wallet of the same retail investor.