Crypto news

In the fall of 2025, Bitcoin updated its all-time high, but this was followed by a prolonged correction. Simultaneously, regulatory pressure on digital currencies intensified in Russia, while the domestic stock market continued to operate under clear rules, demonstrating stable dividend payments.

Against this backdrop, retail investors faced a difficult choice: where to direct their free capital? A discussion unfolded within the expert community around three key questions: whether there is a flow of funds from cryptocurrencies to stocks, whether these instruments compete for the same investor, and how their risks and returns compare over a one-year horizon.

Is There a Flow? Opinions Are Divided

Alexander Peresichan, CEO of TECHNOBIT, confirms the presence of some capital movement. According to him, after Bitcoin's peak in the fall of 2025, the market noticeably declined, and many participants rushed to lock in profits or simply grew tired of price swings. Activity on crypto exchanges decreased, while the stock market in 2026 offered attractive opportunities: high dividends and transparent company reporting. Stricter regulation, in his view, only adds uncertainty to the crypto market, pushing some players toward legal and understandable instruments. However, Peresichan clarifies that this involves only a small fraction of investors.

However, other experts surveyed are more skeptical. Yaroslav Kabakov, Strategy Director at IC "Finam," asserts that there is no mass movement of funds from crypto to stocks. He considers these directions fundamentally different investment strategies.

Fedor Ivanov, Director of Analytics at AML/KYT operator "SHARD," describes the opposite dynamic. According to his data, the Russian securities market is currently experiencing a capital outflow. A significant portion of private funds is going into bank savings and current consumption, rather than stocks.

Yan Pinchuk, Deputy Head of the Exchange Trading Department at WhiteBird, also does not see an inflow into Russian stocks. He points to critically low valuations: the forward P/E multiple stands at just 3.7, compared to the historical average of 6.2 over the last 10 years. This, in his opinion, completely refutes the hypothesis of an inflow of retail money. Such low valuations are the result of geopolitical pressure, sanctions, and the high key interest rate of the Central Bank.

Risk and Return: Crypto Unrivaled in Danger

In assessing the risk-to-potential-profit ratio, experts were far more unanimous. Both stocks and cryptocurrencies are considered risky assets, but the risks of digital coins are an order of magnitude higher.

Roman Nosov, Director of Wealth Management at "BCS World of Investments," reminds that after a deep correction in crypto from the highs of July 2026, as well as in the stock market after the 2022 downturn, returns in both segments can be high. However, over a one-year horizon, the overall risk of cryptocurrency, he says, is undoubtedly higher.

Yaroslav Kabakov agrees with this view. He notes that "blue chips" offer more predictable returns with significantly lower risk. Cryptocurrencies, on the other hand, consistently retain the potential for both super-profits and instant sharp losses.

Fedor Ivanov adds an important qualitative difference: digital currencies have specific infrastructure risks (exchange hacks, loss of keys) that stocks fundamentally lack. Therefore, investors accustomed to traditional instruments will view the crypto market with apprehension, even considering the emergence of state regulation.

Do the Instruments Compete for the Same Investor?

On this issue, opinions diverge again, although the majority leans toward the theory of different audiences. Alexander Peresichan believes that users of these products differ greatly. They overlap mainly in the segment of experienced traders with diversified portfolios. However, among those who buy crypto, there are many people willing to tolerate high volatility but categorically unwilling to deal with official brokers, taxes, and bureaucracy. For this group, cryptocurrencies seem much simpler and faster.

Fedor Ivanov insists that cryptocurrencies in general cannot be considered a direct competitor to the securities market. The current total capitalization of the entire crypto market at $2.4 trillion is incomparable to the capitalization of stocks. These are two different financial worlds.

Yan Pinchuk suggests looking at the issue through the lens of economic cycles. In his opinion, there is currently no hype in the Russian stock market, while the crypto industry is experiencing a crypto winter. These assets could compete in conditions of rapid growth, but none is expected in the near future. At the same time, he estimates the expected return on Russian stocks over a 5-10 year horizon as very high and holds them as part of his own portfolio.

Conclusions from Cryptalist Analyst

Most experts surveyed do not confirm the hypothesis of a mass flow of money from crypto to stocks. Only Alexander Peresichan notes such movement, but describes its scale as small. Meanwhile, Yaroslav Kabakov speaks of the absence of mass transitions, while Fedor Ivanov and Yan Pinchuk point to the opposite or neutral dynamics—an outflow from stocks into savings and undervalued market valuations of companies.

On risk assessment, analysts are unanimous: crypto remains a riskier asset with high potential returns. Classic "blue chips" show predictable and less volatile results. Over a short-term horizon of up to a year, the risks of digital currencies are inherently higher.

On the issue of competition for the end investor, the prevailing view is that the audiences are fundamentally different. They overlap only in the narrow segment of experienced and diversified investors. Key factors here are the current market cycle and the presence of mass hype. During boom periods, these instruments could well compete, but in conditions of mutual decline, there are virtually no points of intersection.

My expert assessment: The current situation is not a flow, but rather a redistribution of free liquidity. Crypto is going into "hibernation" due to a lack of growth drivers and regulatory pressure, while the stock market suffers from macroeconomic factors and sanctions. An investor seeking protection moves into cash or deposits. Competition between these asset classes is currently minimal, but as soon as a clear signal appears—a reduction in the Central Bank rate or a new hype cycle in crypto—capital will start moving very quickly.