Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz: the fragile ceasefire has collapsed
On June 20, 2026, the "Khatam al-Anbiya" Central Command officially announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping. The reason cited was systematic violations of the Islamabad Memorandum by the United States and Israel. This decision instantly nullified all recent diplomatic efforts toward de-escalation and reintroduced a factor of immense geopolitical risk to the market.
This move by the Iranian command is not merely a show of force, but a direct response to what Tehran claims are ongoing military actions. The conflict, which erupted after US and Israeli strikes in late February 2026, has now entered a new, more dangerous phase. Previously imposed restrictions on vessel passage were only a prelude; the complete closure of the strait is a "first step," which, as Iran warns, will be followed by further measures.
Energy Artery Under Attack
The Strait of Hormuz is not just a geographical point. According to the US Energy Information Administration, approximately 21 million barrels of oil and petroleum products are transported through it daily. This accounts for about 20% of global liquid hydrocarbon consumption and a quarter of all seaborne oil trade. Additionally, major export shipments of liquefied natural gas from Qatar and the UAE pass through the strait.
Any disruption in this region traditionally triggers explosive volatility in energy prices. There are virtually no alternative routes for Persian Gulf countries, making a blockade of the strait an existential threat to global supply chains.
The Memorandum That Failed
Just three days ago, on June 17, the 14-point Islamabad Memorandum was agreed upon. It stipulated that Iran would make maximum efforts for the safe and free passage of commercial vessels during the first 60 days. In return, the US was to lift the naval blockade of Iranian ports. Markets reacted instantly: oil prices fell, and shipping began to recover.
However, the current statement from the Iranian army effectively nullifies these agreements. Tehran views Israel's ongoing actions in Lebanon as a direct violation of the memorandum. The situation once again draws attention to the issue of supply shortages amid a potential prolonged shock.
Notably, there has been no official confirmation of the strait's closure from the US side. Vice President JD Vance, on the contrary, suggests the opposite, which only adds to the uncertainty. Markets, which had already priced in a relief of the situation, are now forced to hastily revise their models.
Analytical Commentary: The market underestimated the fragility of the Islamabad Memorandum. Any deal with Iran not backed by real security guarantees and the lifting of all sanctions is doomed to fail. The current escalation is not just a temporary glitch, but a signal of the formation of a new, harsher reality where control over energy arteries becomes the primary tool of geopolitical pressure. I expect a sharp increase in the risk premium in oil futures and, consequently, a strengthening correlation with safe-haven assets, including bitcoin.