Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz: fragile truce collapses
June 20, 2026. The Khatam al-Anbiya Central Command announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping. The reason is alleged systematic violations of the Islamabad Memorandum by the United States and Israel.
This decision is a direct blow to hopes for de-escalation that markets had so optimistically priced in just a few days ago. The blockade of a strategic waterway through which about 20% of global oil consumption and a quarter of all maritime trade in "black gold" passes returns us to an era of maximum geopolitical tension.
Statement from the Military Command
Iran's Supreme Joint Staff called the closure of the strait a "first step" and warned of further measures if "aggression continues." As a reminder, the conflict escalated after U.S. and Israeli strikes in late February 2026, which led to the introduction of earlier restrictions on vessel passage. Now, Tehran has moved to a full blockade.
Approximately 21 million barrels of oil and petroleum products are transported through the Strait of Hormuz daily. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, this is a colossal volume. Additionally, key export flows of liquefied natural gas from Qatar and the UAE pass through here. Any disruptions in this region instantly amplify price volatility, as alternative routes for Gulf countries are virtually nonexistent.
Disagreements over the Islamabad Memorandum
The 14-point Islamabad Memorandum, agreed upon around June 17, 2026, stipulated that Iran would make maximum efforts for the safe and free passage of commercial vessels during the first 60 days. The plan also envisioned the lifting of the U.S. maritime blockade of Iranian ports. Vessel traffic began to recover, which temporarily helped lower energy prices.
However, the new statement from the Iranian army effectively nullifies these agreements. Tehran views Israel's ongoing actions in Lebanon as a direct violation of the memorandum. The market, which had already priced in the deal, will now face a new supply shock.
It is important to note that there is no official confirmation of the strait's closure from other parties yet. U.S. Vice President JD Vance suggests otherwise, adding to the uncertainty. But the very fact of the statement already creates a powerful speculative backdrop.
My analysis: The oil market—and consequently the cryptocurrency market, since BTC often correlates with risk assets—could expect sharp volatility. If the blockade is confirmed, we will see a rapid rise in energy prices, triggering a flight from risk. This is a classic "black swan" for the global economy, and crypto will not be left out.