Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz: fragile truce collapses amid geopolitical crisis
June 20, 2026, marked a turning point for global energy markets. The Khatam al-Anbiya Central Command—Iran's highest joint headquarters—officially announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping. This unprecedented move was justified by alleged violations of the Islamabad Memorandum by the United States and Israel.
This decision completely nullifies the positive market expectations that, just a few days earlier, had factored in a reduction of geopolitical risks into oil and derivative prices. The closure of the strait, through which approximately 21 million barrels of oil and petroleum products pass daily (about 20% of global consumption and a quarter of all seaborne oil trade), poses a direct threat to global transit.
The Islamabad Memorandum: Hope Crumbles
Just three days earlier, on June 17, a 14-point Islamabad Memorandum was agreed upon, which stipulated Iran's maximum efforts to ensure safe and free passage for commercial vessels during the first 60 days. The document also envisioned the lifting of the US naval blockade of Iranian ports. Ship traffic began to recover, contributing to a decline in energy prices.
However, the current statement from the Iranian command effectively nullifies these agreements. Tehran views Israel's ongoing actions in Lebanon as a direct violation of the memorandum. Apparently, the parties were unable to overcome mutual grievances, and Iran's "first step" was a response to what it considers aggression.
Markets in a Turbulence Zone
In addition to oil, major export shipments of liquefied natural gas from Qatar and the UAE pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Alternative routes for Gulf countries are virtually non-existent, making this region a critical node for global energy security.
Cryptalist Analysis: There is no official confirmation of the strait's closure from independent sources yet—US Vice President JD Vance indicates the opposite. However, the mere fact of such a statement from Iran has already exerted strong pressure on oil futures. The cryptocurrency market, sensitive to macroeconomic shocks, may also experience increased volatility. In the short term, we see a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario, but if the blockade is confirmed, energy prices could soar to levels not seen since early 2022. Investors should prepare for a period of high uncertainty.