Russian investors at a crossroads: is capital flowing from crypto to stocks?
In the fall of 2025, Bitcoin updated its all-time high, but this was followed by a prolonged correction. At the same time, regulation of digital currencies is tightening in Russia, while the domestic stock market operates under clear rules and consistently pays dividends. Against this backdrop, retail investors face a difficult choice of financial instruments. The main question: are Russian private investors' funds flowing from cryptocurrencies into company stocks?
An analysis of the market situation shows that there is no consensus among experts. Some note capital movement, while others are confident that these instruments serve fundamentally different audiences.
Is there a flow?
Based on my observations, some portion of Russian investors' funds is indeed migrating from crypto to stocks. After Bitcoin's peak in the fall of 2025, the market noticeably declined, and many participants rushed to lock in profits or simply grew tired of constant price swings. Activity on specialized crypto exchanges has decreased. At the same time, the stock market in 2026 presented a good opportunity to earn—investors are attracted by high dividends and more transparent company histories. Strict regulation of digital assets adds unnecessary uncertainty to the market. This is why some players are moving free capital into legal and understandable instruments. However, this concerns only a small share of investors—there is no mass exodus yet.
However, other experts surveyed disagree with this thesis. Yaroslav Kabakov from IC "Finam" notes that no mass movement of funds from crypto to stocks is currently observed. He reasonably considers these directions as fundamentally different investment strategies. Fedor Ivanov from the operator "SHARD" even describes the opposite dynamic: the current state of the Russian securities market shows an outflow of funds from stocks. Most likely, a significant portion of private capital is moving into bank savings and current consumption.
Yan Pinchuk from WhiteBird also does not observe a flow into Russian stocks. He points to the fwd P/E multiplier, which is only 3.7 compared to the average historical value over the last 10 years of 6.2. Current valuations of domestic companies are more than 60% below their average norm. In his opinion, this completely refutes the hypothesis of an inflow of private funds into stocks.
Risk and return: stocks vs. crypto
In assessing the balance of risks and potential returns, experts were much more unanimous. Cryptocurrencies traditionally carry a much higher danger to capital. Roman Nosov from "BCS World of Investments" reminds that in Russia, both stocks and crypto belong to the risk class of assets. However, the risks and expected returns from digital coins are an order of magnitude higher than those from securities. Over a one-year horizon, the overall risk of cryptocurrency, he says, is definitely higher. At the same time, "blue chips" offer investors much more predictable returns with significantly lower risk.
Fedor Ivanov adds an important qualitative difference to the list: digital currencies always have specific infrastructure risks that are fundamentally absent in stocks. For this reason, investors accustomed to investing in traditional instruments will view the crypto market with caution, even with the emergence of state regulation.
Do the instruments compete for the same investor?
On this issue, analysts' opinions again diverge, although most lean toward the theory of different audiences. Users of these products differ greatly. They overlap mainly in the segment of experienced traders with a well-diversified portfolio for different economic cycles. However, among those who buy crypto, there are many people willing to tolerate high volatility. At the same time, they categorically do not want to deal with official brokers, tax reports, and other bureaucracy. For this group, cryptocurrencies seem much simpler and faster. Therefore, the bulk of retail investors—especially the young and risk-prone—consciously remain in crypto outside the traditional market.
Yan Pinchuk suggests looking at this issue solely through the lens of economic cycles. It all depends on the specific phase, and private investors usually go where the hype is. However, currently, there is no hype in the Russian stock market, while the crypto industry is in the midst of a crypto winter. In his words, the best time to buy stocks is when no one likes them. He assesses the expected return on Russian stocks over a 5–10 year horizon as very high and holds a portion of his portfolio in them.
My conclusion as an analyst: The market is in a phase of reassessment. For now, crypto retains a young and risk-oriented audience, while stocks attract conservatives. But the current extremely low multipliers of the Russian stock market are a signal that experienced investors should not ignore. In the long term, it is fundamentally undervalued assets that often show the greatest growth.