Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz: the fragile ceasefire collapses
On June 20, 2026, the "Khatam al-Anbiya" Central Command—Iran's highest joint headquarters—officially announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping. The reason cited is violations of the recently signed Islamabad Memorandum by the United States and Israel. This decision shatters hopes for de-escalation that markets had priced in just a few days ago.
Escalation after the truce
All key Iranian state media immediately disseminated the command's statement. According to it, the closure of the strait is merely a "first step," and Tehran reserves the right to take harsher measures if "aggression continues." The conflict escalated after US and Israeli strikes in late February 2026, which led to earlier restrictions on vessel passage. The situation has now entered a new, more dangerous phase.
It is worth recalling that approximately 21 million barrels of oil and petroleum products are transported through the Strait of Hormuz daily—about 20% of global liquid hydrocarbon consumption and a quarter of all seaborne oil trade. Additionally, major export shipments of liquefied natural gas from Qatar and the UAE pass through the strait. Any disruption in this region inevitably triggers price volatility, as alternative routes for Gulf countries are virtually nonexistent.
The Islamabad Memorandum: signed and violated
The 14-point Islamabad Memorandum, agreed upon around June 17, 2026, stipulated that Iran would make maximum efforts to ensure the safe and free passage of commercial vessels for the first 60 days. The plan also called for the lifting of the US naval blockade of Iranian ports. Following the signing of this agreement, vessel traffic began to recover, helping to lower energy prices.
However, the new statement from the Iranian army effectively nullifies these agreements. Tehran views Israel's ongoing actions in Lebanon as a direct violation of the memorandum. Previously, this document quickly led to a drop in oil prices, but the current situation once again focuses market attention on the risks of a long-term supply shock.
Notably, there is no official confirmation of the strait's closure yet—US Vice President JD Vance indicates the opposite. This creates additional uncertainty, which in itself is a powerful factor putting pressure on markets.
My analysis: The market has once again fallen into the trap of geopolitical risk. Players who bet on stabilization after the memorandum will have to reassess their positions. The closure of Hormuz is not just an episode but a signal that any diplomatic progress in the region remains extremely fragile. For the crypto market, this means a resurgence of interest in safe-haven assets and, possibly, a temporary outflow of capital from risky instruments amid rising energy prices.