Cryptocurrency or Stocks: Where Are Russian Investors' Money Really Going?
In the fall of 2025, Bitcoin updated its all-time high, but then the market entered a prolonged correction. Against this backdrop, Russia tightened regulation of digital currencies, while the domestic stock market continues to operate under clear rules and steadily pays dividends. This puts retail investors in a difficult position: where to direct capital?
Real Flow or Illusion?
Experts' opinions are divided. Alexander Peresichan, CEO of TECHNOBIT, notes a movement of funds from crypto to stocks. According to him, after Bitcoin's peak, many investors decided to lock in profits or simply grew tired of volatility. Activity on crypto exchanges has declined. At the same time, the stock market in 2026 offered attractive dividends and transparency. The tightening of regulation, in his view, added uncertainty, and some players preferred legal and clear instruments. However, Peresichan emphasizes that this concerns only a small share of investors.
Yaroslav Kabakov, Director of Strategy at IC "Finam," disagrees. He claims there is no mass flow and views these directions as fundamentally different investment strategies. Fedor Ivanov, Director of Analytics at AML/KYT operator "SHARD," even observes the opposite dynamic: an outflow from stocks into bank savings and current consumption. According to his data, a significant portion of private capital is moving into cash.
Yan Pinchuk, Deputy Head of Exchange Trading at WhiteBird, also sees no flow into Russian stocks. He points to the fwd P/E multiplier, which stands at just 3.7 versus the historical average of 6.2. This means valuations of domestic companies are more than 60% below the norm. In his opinion, this completely refutes the hypothesis of an inflow of retail money into stocks.
Risk and Return: Comparative Analysis
Experts are more unanimous in assessing risks. Roman Nosov, Director of Wealthy Client Relations at "BCS World of Investments," reminds that both stocks and crypto are risky assets. However, the risks and potential returns of digital coins are an order of magnitude higher. After a deep correction, returns in both segments can be high, but over a one-year horizon, the overall risk of cryptocurrency is certainly higher. Yaroslav Kabakov adds that "blue chips" offer more predictable returns with significantly lower risk. Fedor Ivanov also emphasizes that crypto has specific infrastructure risks that stocks do not, which deters conservative investors.
Competition for One Investor
Most analysts agree that the audiences of these instruments are fundamentally different. Alexander Peresichan believes they overlap only in the segment of experienced traders with a diversified portfolio. At the same time, many crypto buyers are willing to tolerate high volatility but avoid the bureaucracy associated with official brokers and taxes. Fedor Ivanov insists that cryptocurrencies in general cannot be considered a direct competitor to the securities market, pointing to incomparable capitalization ($2.4 trillion versus the stock market). Yan Pinchuk suggests looking at this issue through the lens of economic cycles: retail investors go where the hype is. Currently, there is no hype in the Russian stock market, while the crypto industry is experiencing a crypto winter. He estimates the expected return on Russian stocks over a 5-10 year horizon as very high and holds them in his own portfolio.
Analytical Conclusion from Cryptalist: There is no mass flow from crypto to stocks in Russia. These are two different worlds with different audiences and risk profiles. However, the current undervaluation of the Russian stock market, combined with high dividends and tighter crypto regulation, creates a unique opportunity for long-term investors. Crypto remains a tool for high-risk speculation, while stocks are for those who value predictability and reliability.