Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz: the fragile truce has collapsed
On June 20, 2026, the situation in the Middle East sharply escalated. The Khatam al-Anbiya Central Command—Iran's highest joint headquarters—officially announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping. The reason cited was violations of the Islamabad Memorandum by the United States and Israel.
This decision instantly dashed hopes for de-escalation that markets had priced in just a few days earlier. The closure of the planet's most strategic oil corridor once again creates direct risks for global energy transit.
First Step Toward Escalation
In the statement from Iranian military officials, this step was described as "the first"—and is accompanied by a direct warning of further measures if "aggression" continues. Recall that the conflict began with U.S. and Israeli strikes in late February 2026, after which Tehran had already imposed partial restrictions on vessel passage. Now, the restrictions have become complete.
Approximately 21 million barrels of oil and petroleum products are transported through the Strait of Hormuz daily. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, this accounts for about 20% of global liquid hydrocarbon consumption and a quarter of all seaborne oil trade. In addition to oil, major export shipments of liquefied natural gas from Qatar and the UAE pass through the strait. There are virtually no alternative routes for Persian Gulf countries—any disruption here instantly translates into price volatility.
The Islamabad Memorandum: A Stillborn Compromise
The 14-point Islamabad Memorandum, agreed upon around June 17, 2026, stipulated that Tehran would make maximum efforts to ensure the safe and free passage of commercial vessels for the first 60 days. In return, the U.S. was to lift the naval blockade of Iranian ports. Vessel traffic had indeed begun to recover, helping temporarily lower energy prices.
However, the current statement from the Iranian army effectively nullifies these agreements. Tehran views Israel's ongoing actions in Lebanon as a direct violation of the memorandum.
It is important to note that there has been no official confirmation from Washington regarding the closure of the strait. U.S. Vice President JD Vance suggests the opposite, commenting on the long-term strategy to neutralize Iran's nuclear ambitions. But in practice, Tehran's rhetoric has already put pressure on markets.
My analysis: Markets are currently in a zone of high uncertainty. If the blockade of the strait lasts more than a few days, we will see a sharp spike in oil prices above $100 per barrel, triggering a chain reaction in energy costs and, consequently, intensifying inflationary pressure on the global economy. In such a scenario, the cryptocurrency market may temporarily correct, but in the long term, it is precisely decentralized assets that often benefit from geopolitical shocks.