Iran again blocks the Strait of Hormuz: the fragile ceasefire has collapsed
The Khatam al-Anbiya Central Command—Iran's highest joint headquarters—has announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping. The reason cited is violations of the Islamabad Memorandum by the United States and Israel. This decision instantly dashed market hopes for a de-escalation and once again injected geopolitical risk into global energy supply chains.
Just three days ago, on June 17, 2026, the 14-point Islamabad Memorandum was agreed upon, which stipulated that Iran would make maximum efforts to ensure the safe and free passage of commercial vessels during the first 60 days. In response, the U.S. was to lift the naval blockade of Iranian ports. Markets breathed a sigh of relief, oil prices began to fall, and shipping gradually started to recover.
However, Tehran now claims that "aggression" by Israel and the U.S. continues, which is a direct violation of the spirit and letter of the memorandum. The Iranian command calls the closure of the strait a "first step" and warns of further measures if the adversaries' actions do not cease. Notably, U.S. Vice President JD Vance, on the contrary, asserts that the deal remains in effect and points to the opposite.
Bets on the Energy Card
The Strait of Hormuz is an artery through which approximately 21 million barrels of oil are transported daily, accounting for about 20% of global liquid hydrocarbon consumption and a quarter of all seaborne oil trade. Major LNG export shipments from Qatar and the UAE also pass through it. Any disruption in this region instantly impacts price volatility, as alternative routes for Gulf countries are virtually nonexistent.
Markets have already priced in the deal, incorporating relief into quotes. Now we are witnessing a sharp reversal: if the blockade is confirmed, oil could surge sharply, along with inflation expectations. For the cryptocurrency market, this is a double blow: rising energy costs pressure mining, while geopolitical uncertainty pushes investors toward safe-haven assets.
My analysis: Iran's decision is not a spontaneous outburst but a calculated step within a long-standing "crisis management" strategy. The Islamabad Memorandum gave markets a false sense of security, but the real dynamics of the conflict have always been dictated not by documents, but by military-political alignments. We are now on the brink of a new round of tension that could last months and fundamentally alter the structure of global energy flows. Investors should prepare for heightened volatility and reassess risk management.