Crypto or Stocks: Where is Russian Investors' Capital Actually Moving?
In the fall of 2025, Bitcoin updated its all-time high, but then the market entered a phase of prolonged correction. Simultaneously, regulatory pressure on digital currencies is intensifying in Russia. At the same time, the domestic stock market operates under transparent rules and consistently pays dividends. Against this backdrop, a natural question arises for the retail investor: isn't it time to shift from crypto to stocks?
Is there really a capital flow?
Expert opinions on this issue are divided. Alexander Peresichan, CEO of TEKHNOBIT, notes a certain movement of funds. According to his observations, after Bitcoin's peak, some investors indeed began to lock in profits and move away from constant volatility. Activity on crypto exchanges has declined, while the stock market in 2026 has presented attractive opportunities—good dividends and transparent corporate reporting. Stricter regulation, in his view, only adds uncertainty, pushing some players toward more understandable legal instruments. However, he emphasizes that this concerns only a small share of investors.
However, other experts surveyed are more skeptical. Yaroslav Kabakov from IK "Finam" asserts that there is no mass movement of funds from crypto to stocks whatsoever. He views these directions as fundamentally different investment strategies. Fedor Ivanov from the operator "SHARD" even observes the opposite dynamic: according to his data, capital is moving from stocks to bank savings and current consumption. Yan Pinchuk from WhiteBird adds a compelling argument: the fwd P/E multiplier of the Russian market is only 3.7, compared to the historical average of 6.2. Such undervaluation, in his opinion, completely refutes the hypothesis of an inflow of private capital into stocks.
Risk and return: what outweighs?
In assessing the risk-return ratio, analysts are more unanimous. Roman Nosov from "BCS World of Investments" reminds that both stocks and crypto belong to risky asset classes. However, the risks and expected returns of digital coins are an order of magnitude higher. Moreover, after deep corrections in both segments, returns can be very high, although on a one-year horizon, the overall risk of cryptocurrency is certainly higher.
Yaroslav Kabakov notes that "blue chips" offer much more predictable returns with significantly lower risk. Fedor Ivanov adds an important qualitative difference: crypto always has specific infrastructure risks (hacks, lost keys, exchange issues) that stocks fundamentally lack. Therefore, investors accustomed to traditional instruments will view the crypto market with caution, even despite the emergence of state regulation.
Do the instruments compete for the same investor?
Most experts agree that the audiences of these instruments are fundamentally different. Alexander Peresichan believes they overlap only in the segment of experienced traders with a diversified portfolio. Meanwhile, a mass of retail investors, especially young and risk-prone ones, consciously remain in crypto, avoiding broker bureaucracy and tax reporting. Fedor Ivanov insists that cryptocurrencies in general cannot be considered a direct competitor to the securities market, pointing to incomparable scales: the entire crypto market's capitalization of $2.4 trillion pales in comparison to the stock market.
Yan Pinchuk suggests viewing the issue through the lens of economic cycles: the private investor goes where the hype is. Currently, there is no hype in the Russian stock market, while a crypto winter is raging in the crypto industry. At the same time, he estimates the expected return on Russian stocks over a 5-10 year horizon as very high and holds them in his own portfolio.
My analysis: The current situation is not a story about capital flow, but a story about audience divergence. Crypto remains the domain of risk-on speculators, while stocks are a tool for conservative accumulation. As long as there are no growth drivers in the Russian market and crypto does not cease to be a "wild west," these two worlds will exist in parallel, only occasionally intersecting in the portfolios of the most sophisticated players.