Crypto or stocks: where are Russian investors' money actually going?
In the fall of 2025, Bitcoin updated its all-time high, but then the market plunged into a prolonged correction. Simultaneously, Russia began tightening regulations on digital currencies, while the stock market demonstrated stability and regular dividend payments.
Against this backdrop, retail investors face a difficult choice. A debate has erupted within the expert community: are Russian private investors really starting to massively shift capital from cryptocurrencies to stocks? Or do these two asset classes serve fundamentally different audiences? My colleagues and I conducted a detailed analysis of the current situation, and the results were mixed.
Capital Flow: Myth or Reality?
Alexander Peresichan, CEO of TECHNOBIT, notes that some funds are indeed leaving the crypto market. After Bitcoin's peak, many investors decided to lock in profits or simply grew tired of constant price swings. Activity on specialized crypto exchanges has declined. At the same time, attractive opportunities emerged in the stock market in 2026: high dividends and transparent corporate reporting. Additionally, strict regulation of digital assets adds unnecessary uncertainty to the market. However, Peresichan emphasizes that this concerns only a small fraction of investors.
The other experts surveyed are more skeptical. Yaroslav Kabakov, Director of Strategy at IC Finam, asserts that no massive movement of funds is observed. In his view, these are fundamentally different investment strategies. Fyodor Ivanov, Director of Analytics for AML/KYT at operator SHARD, sees the opposite dynamic: funds are moving from stocks to bank savings and current consumption. Yan Pinchuk, Deputy Head of Exchange Trading at WhiteBird, draws attention to the fwd P/E multiplier of the Russian market, which stands at just 3.7 compared to the historical average of 6.2 over the past 10 years. According to him, such low valuations completely refute the hypothesis of an inflow of private capital into stocks.
Risk and Return: A Consensus
Experts were more unanimous in assessing the risk-return ratio. Roman Nosov, Director of Wealth Management at BCS World of Investments, reminds that both stocks and crypto are risky assets, but the volatility of digital coins is an order of magnitude higher. Over a one-year horizon, the overall risk of cryptocurrency is certainly higher, although after deep corrections, returns in both segments can be high. Yaroslav Kabakov adds that blue chips offer much more predictable returns with significantly lower risk. Fyodor Ivanov also emphasizes the specific infrastructure risks of crypto that stocks lack, which deters conservative investors even with the emergence of state regulation.
Competition for One Investor
Expert opinions diverge again, although most lean toward the theory of different audiences. Alexander Peresichan believes that users of crypto and stocks differ greatly. Experienced traders with diversified portfolios may overlap, but a significant portion of retail investors (especially young people) consciously remain in crypto, avoiding bureaucracy and tax reporting. Fyodor Ivanov insists that cryptocurrencies cannot generally be considered a direct competitor to the securities market, pointing to incomparable capitalization: $2.4 trillion for the entire crypto market versus the multi-trillion-dollar US stock market. Yan Pinchuk suggests viewing the issue through economic cycles: there is currently no hype in Russian stocks, while a crypto winter is raging in the crypto industry. According to him, the best time to buy stocks is when no one likes them, and he himself holds a portion of his portfolio in them, estimating expected returns over a 5-10 year horizon as very high.
Analyst Conclusions
My analysis shows that the hypothesis of a massive flow of funds from crypto to stocks does not find clear confirmation. Most experts either record only minor movement or point to the opposite dynamic. Cryptocurrency remains a riskier but potentially more profitable asset for a specific audience, while classic blue chips attract investors seeking stability and predictability. These two worlds overlap only in a narrow segment of experienced and diversified players. In current market conditions, with mutual decline, there are virtually no points of intersection, and each instrument continues to serve its own niche.