Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz: ceasefire collapses, markets in turbulence zone
June 20, 2026 — The Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters has officially announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping. The reason is systematic violations of the Islamabad memorandum by the United States and Israel. This decision not only nullifies recent de-escalation efforts but also once again jeopardizes global energy supply chains.
The Strait of Hormuz is a key artery of the global energy sector. Approximately 21 million barrels of oil and petroleum products pass through it daily, accounting for about 20% of global consumption and a quarter of all seaborne oil trade. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration confirms that there are virtually no alternative routes for Persian Gulf countries. Any restriction here automatically translates into price increases and volatility in commodity markets.
What lies behind Tehran's decision?
Khatam al-Anbiya — Iran's supreme joint headquarters — described the closure of the strait as a "first step" and warned of further measures if aggression continues. The statement, disseminated through all major Iranian state media, followed U.S. and Israeli strikes in late February 2026 and the imposition of earlier restrictions on vessel passage.
Recall that the 14-point Islamabad memorandum, agreed upon around June 17, 2026, stipulated that Tehran would make maximum efforts to ensure the safe and free passage of commercial vessels during the first 60 days. The deal also envisioned the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports. Vessel traffic began to recover, contributing to a decline in energy prices.
However, the current statement from Iranian military forces effectively nullifies these agreements. Tehran views Israel's ongoing actions in Lebanon as a direct violation of the memorandum. Notably, even before this event, the memorandum quickly led to lower oil prices, but the current escalation could trigger a prolonged supply shock.
As of now, there is no official confirmation from the American side regarding the closure of the strait. U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance indicates the opposite, creating information uncertainty and additional pressure on markets. As an analyst, I believe that even a temporary blockade of Hormuz could cause a sharp spike in oil prices and heighten geopolitical risk appetite, which could negatively impact risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Markets that had priced in a détente are now forced to reassess scenarios — and this will likely be accompanied by high volatility.