Crypto news

In the fall of 2025, Bitcoin updated its all-time high, but this was followed by a prolonged correction. At the same time, regulation of digital currencies is tightening in Russia, while the stock market operates under transparent rules and consistently pays dividends. In this situation, the retail investor faces a difficult choice: where to direct their capital?

The expert community is divided on whether there is a massive outflow of funds from cryptocurrencies to shares of Russian companies. Some analysts note capital movement, while others point to fundamentally different investment strategies and audiences for these instruments.

Is there a capital outflow?

Alexander Peresichan, CEO of TECHNOBIT, notes that some funds from Russian investors have indeed begun to flow from crypto to stocks. The reason is profit-taking after Bitcoin's peak in the fall of 2025 and fatigue from volatility. Activity on crypto exchanges has decreased, while in 2026 the stock market presented an attractive opportunity to earn from dividends and transparent corporate reporting. Tightening crypto regulation adds uncertainty, pushing some players toward more understandable and legal instruments. However, Peresichan clarifies that the scale of this outflow is still insignificant.

However, other experts surveyed disagree with this thesis. Yaroslav Kabakov, Director of Strategy at Finam Investment Company, emphasizes that no massive movement of funds is observed. He views cryptocurrencies and stocks as fundamentally different investment strategies, not competing assets.

Fyodor Ivanov, Director of Analytics at AML/KYT operator SHARD, sees the opposite dynamic: according to his data, there is currently a noticeable outflow of funds from stocks. A significant portion of private capital is moving into bank savings and current consumption, not into cryptocurrencies.

Yan Pinchuk, Deputy Head of Exchange Trading at WhiteBird, also does not observe an outflow into Russian stocks. He points to the fwd P/E multiplier, which is only 3.7 compared to the historical average of 6.2 over the last 10 years. This means current valuations of domestic companies are more than 60% below their average norm. Such low valuations, in his opinion, completely refute the hypothesis of an inflow of retail money into stocks.

Risk and return: stocks vs. crypto

In assessing the risk-return ratio, experts are more unanimous. Cryptocurrencies traditionally carry a much higher danger to capital.

Roman Nosov, Director of Wealth Management at BCS World of Investments, reminds that both stocks and crypto are risky asset classes. However, the risks and expected returns of digital coins are an order of magnitude higher. After a deep correction in both segments, returns can be very high, but over a one-year horizon, the overall risk of cryptocurrency is certainly higher.

Yaroslav Kabakov adds that "blue chips" offer investors much more predictable returns with significantly lower risk. Cryptocurrencies, meanwhile, retain the potential for both super-profits and instant sharp losses.

Fyodor Ivanov emphasizes a qualitative difference: digital currencies always have specific infrastructure risks (exchange hacks, key loss) that are fundamentally absent in stocks. Therefore, investors accustomed to traditional instruments will view the crypto market with caution, even despite the emergence of state regulation.

Do the instruments compete for the same investor?

Analysts' opinions diverge again, although most lean toward the theory of different audiences.

Alexander Peresichan believes that users of these products differ greatly. They overlap mainly in the segment of experienced traders with a diversified portfolio. However, among those who buy crypto, there are many people willing to tolerate high volatility and categorically unwilling to deal with official brokers, taxes, and bureaucracy. For this group, cryptocurrency seems much simpler and faster. Therefore, even if reliable "blue chips" appear more stable, the majority of retail investors—especially the young and risk-prone—consciously remain in crypto outside the traditional market.

Fyodor Ivanov insists that cryptocurrencies in general cannot be considered a direct competitor to the securities market. The scale is incomparable: the current total crypto market capitalization of $2.4 trillion pales in comparison to stock market capitalization. These are two completely different financial worlds.

Yan Pinchuk suggests looking at the issue through the lens of economic cycles. In his opinion, the retail investor goes where the hype is. However, there is no hype in the Russian stock market, while the crypto industry is in the grip of a crypto winter. During boom periods, these instruments could actively compete for the same person, but in conditions of mutual downturn, there are virtually no points of intersection. At the same time, Pinchuk estimates the expected return on Russian stocks over a 5–10 year horizon as very high and holds them as part of his own portfolio.

Conclusions

Most experts surveyed do not confirm the hypothesis of a massive outflow of funds from Russian retail investors from crypto to stocks. Those who note capital movement describe its scale as insignificant. In risk assessment, analysts are unanimous: crypto remains a more dangerous asset with high potential returns, while "blue chips" offer a predictable and less volatile outcome. On the question of competition for the end investor, the prevailing opinion is that of fundamentally different audiences, which overlap only in the narrow segment of experienced and diversified investors.

My analysis: Based on current dynamics, we are observing not so much an outflow as a differentiation of investors by risk profile. The Russian stock market, despite its fundamental undervaluation, has not yet attracted mass retail investors due to the lack of "hype" and geopolitical risks. Cryptocurrencies, in turn, remain a niche for those willing to accept extreme volatility in exchange for potentially high returns. In the near future, these two worlds are unlikely to merge.