Crypto news

In the fall of 2025, Bitcoin updated its all-time high, after which the market entered a prolonged correction. Against this backdrop, Russia tightened regulation of digital currencies, while the stock market continues to operate under transparent rules and steadily pay dividends. A logical question arises: has a mass exodus of private capital from crypto to stocks begun?

My analysis shows that there is no clear answer — experts are divided in their opinions, and they differ not only in their conclusions but also in their very interpretation of the current market situation.

Is there a flow?

Alexander Peresichan from TEKHNOBIT confirms that some funds are indeed flowing from cryptocurrencies to stocks. The reason is profit-taking after the BTC peak and investor fatigue from constant volatility. Activity on crypto exchanges has declined, while the stock market in 2026 offered attractive dividends and a clearer company narrative. Tightening regulation has only added uncertainty. However, as the expert clarifies, the scale of this movement is still insignificant.

Yaroslav Kabakov from Finam holds the opposite position. He is convinced that there is no mass movement of funds, and the instruments themselves — crypto and stocks — are fundamentally different investment strategies. According to him, they do not directly compete.

Fyodor Ivanov from SHARD even notes a reverse dynamic: according to his data, there is an outflow from stocks into bank savings and current consumption. He believes that a significant portion of private capital is moving into cash, rather than alternative assets.

Yan Pinchuk from WhiteBird supports his position with figures: the current forward P/E multiplier of the Russian market is only 3.7, compared to the historical average of 6.2 over the last 10 years. This means that companies are undervalued by more than 60%. Such low valuations, in his opinion, completely refute the hypothesis of an inflow of private money into stocks. Among the pressure factors are geopolitics, sanctions, and the high key interest rate of the Central Bank.

Risk and return: stocks vs. crypto

In assessing the risk-return ratio, experts are much more unanimous. Roman Nosov from BCS reminds that both stocks and crypto in Russia belong to risky asset classes. However, the risks and expected returns of digital coins are an order of magnitude higher. At the same time, after deep corrections (as in crypto from the highs of July 2026, and in the stock market after the 2022 downturn), returns in both segments could be very high. Nevertheless, over a one-year horizon, the overall risk of cryptocurrency, according to him, is undoubtedly higher.

Fyodor Ivanov adds an important qualitative difference: digital currencies have specific infrastructure risks that stocks fundamentally lack. This is why investors accustomed to traditional instruments will view the crypto market with caution, even despite the emergence of state regulation.

Do the instruments compete for the same investor?

Opinions diverge again, although the majority leans toward the theory of different audiences. Alexander Peresichan believes that the users of these products are very different. They overlap mainly in the segment of experienced traders with a diversified portfolio. At the same time, among those who buy crypto, there are many people willing to tolerate high volatility but categorically unwilling to deal with official brokers, tax reporting, and other bureaucracy. For this group, cryptocurrency appears much simpler and faster. Therefore, the bulk of retail investors — especially the young and risk-prone — consciously remain in crypto.

Fyodor Ivanov insists that cryptocurrencies in general cannot be considered a direct competitor to the securities market. He points to scale: the current total capitalization of the entire crypto market at $2.4 trillion is incomparable to the capitalization of stocks. These are two completely different financial worlds.

Yan Pinchuk suggests looking at the issue through the lens of economic cycles. In his opinion, it all depends on the specific phase: the private investor goes where the hype is. Right now, there is no hype in the Russian stock market, and in the crypto industry, there is a crypto winter. These assets could actively compete for the same person during a period of rapid growth, but none is expected in the near future. At the same time, he assesses the expected return on Russian stocks over a 5–10 year horizon as very high and holds a portion of his portfolio in them.

Conclusions and my expertise

The majority of surveyed experts do not confirm the hypothesis of a mass flow of money from Russian private investors from crypto to stocks. Only Alexander Peresichan notes such capital movement, but calls its scale small. Yaroslav Kabakov speaks of the absence of mass transitions. Fyodor Ivanov and Yan Pinchuk point to reverse or neutral dynamics — an outflow from stocks into savings and undervalued market valuations of companies.

In assessing risks, analysts are unanimous: crypto remains a riskier asset with high potential returns. Classic "blue chips" show predictable and less volatile results. Over a short-term horizon of up to one year, the risks of digital currencies are inherently assessed as higher.

On the issue of competition for the end investor, the prevailing view is of fundamentally different audiences. They overlap only in the narrow segment of experienced and diversified investors.

My position: The market is in a "safe haven" phase, where capital is not so much flowing as it is frozen in anticipation. Russian stocks look fundamentally undervalued, but a catalyst is needed for a mass inflow — a reduction in the Central Bank rate or a easing of geopolitical risks. Crypto, in turn, remains a playground for those willing to take high risks for potentially supernormal returns. There is no direct competition between these instruments now, and I do not expect it to emerge in the next 12 months.