Banks vs. exchangers: when will cryptocurrency appear in mobile apps in Russia
Russian retail will finally get the opportunity to buy digital financial assets (DFAs) and cryptocurrencies directly through banking apps. This is an inevitable scenario that will radically change the market landscape. However, the key question is not whether such access will exist, but in what form and when it will happen, as well as whether traditional banks can push out the gray market of exchangers.
What will retail get: DFAs or crypto?
An analysis of the current situation shows that the most likely scenario is a gradual implementation, not a revolution. In my assessment, banks will primarily focus on DFAs, as this instrument already has a clearer regulatory framework. Direct purchase of classic cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, remains in question due to strict compliance and regulatory requirements.
The key driver of this process is the Bank of Russia, which is promoting a bill on cryptocurrencies, expecting its adoption in the second reading by the end of July. The final version of this document will determine the rules of the game for all market participants.
Two types of users: who needs banks and who doesn't
The market is not homogeneous. Experts rightly divide retail clients into two categories, and for each, banking services will have different value.
Beginners are the main audience for banks. They critically value simplicity, security, and trust in a familiar brand. A banking app will become an ideal gateway for them into the world of digital currencies, eliminating the need to understand seed phrases and crypto wallets. In this segment, banks have a huge advantage due to their broad audience and familiar interface.
Experienced traders, on the other hand, will work directly with exchanges and DeFi protocols. For them, the key factors are favorable exchange rates, high liquidity, and minimal fees. In this battle, banks will likely lose, as they cannot compete with global platforms on these parameters.
Gray market: displacement, but not destruction
Many expect that legalization through banks will completely destroy the shadow sector of exchangers. Reality, as always, is more complex. Banks will undoubtedly significantly reduce the share of illegal players in the mass segment by offering a convenient and legal product. However, the professional audience will continue to choose anonymity and access to global liquidity.
Additionally, after the law comes into effect, the activities of unlicensed exchangers will become criminally and administratively punishable. This will force major players to legalize, although they will have to compete with banks for the same audience.
Conclusions and forecast
Retail access to digital assets through banks is a matter of not "if," but "when." The bill, expected to be adopted by the end of July, will be that trigger. However, it is important to understand: initially, it will be about DFAs, not classic cryptocurrencies. Banks will easily replace exchangers for beginners but will lose the battle for professionals.
My expert opinion: The market awaits not a one-time revolution, but a phased evolution. Banks will occupy the niche of "crypto for dummies," providing a safe and simple entry point. However, they will not be able to completely push out the gray market—it will persist as a niche tool for experienced users who value anonymity and global access. The main bottleneck remains the shortage of specialized personnel within the banks themselves, not just regulatory risks.