Iran has de facto blocked the Strait of Hormuz: the ceasefire has collapsed, oil risks return
June 20, 2026. The Khatam al-Anbiya Central Command — Iran's highest joint headquarters — has officially announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping. According to the military, the reason is a violation of the Islamabad Memorandum by the United States and Israel.
This decision contradicts recent de-escalation efforts and once again poses a direct threat to global oil transit. Markets, which had already begun pricing in reduced tensions, are now forced to reassess scenarios.
Military Command Statement
The Khatam al-Anbiya Central Command described the closure of the strait as a "first step" and warned of further measures if aggression continues. The information was disseminated through all major Iranian state media.
It is worth recalling that the conflict situation in the region sharply escalated after strikes by the United States and Israel in late February 2026. Initial restrictions on passage through the strait were introduced at that time, and the current statement is a logical but extremely harsh continuation of this scenario.
Key point: Approximately 21 million barrels of oil and petroleum products are transported through the Strait of Hormuz daily. This accounts for about 20% of global liquid hydrocarbon consumption and roughly a quarter of all seaborne oil trade, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. In addition to oil, major export shipments of liquefied natural gas from Qatar and the UAE pass through the strait. Any disruption in this region instantly amplifies price volatility, as alternative routes for Gulf countries are virtually nonexistent.
Disagreements Over the Islamabad Memorandum
The 14-point Islamabad Memorandum, agreed upon around June 17, 2026, stipulated that Iran would make maximum efforts to ensure the safe and free passage of commercial vessels during the first 60 days. The plan also envisioned the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports. Ship traffic began to recover after this agreement was reached, helping to lower energy prices.
The new statement from the Iranian army effectively nullifies these agreements. Tehran views Israel's ongoing actions in Lebanon as a violation of the memorandum.
Earlier, the conclusion of the memorandum quickly led to a drop in oil prices, but the current situation once again draws attention to supply issues amid a potential prolonged supply shock. There is no official confirmation of a complete closure of the strait from independent sources yet — U.S. Vice President JD Vance suggests the opposite, emphasizing a long-term strategy to neutralize Iran's nuclear ambitions.
My analysis: The market is underestimating the likelihood of a prolonged blockade. If Iran truly moves from threats to action, we will see a sharp spike in oil prices above $100 per barrel, triggering a new wave of inflation and putting direct pressure on risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. For now, this is a "first step," but escalation appears inevitable.