Cryptocurrency or Stocks: Where Are Russian Investors' Money Really Going?
In the fall of 2025, Bitcoin updated its all-time high, after which the market plunged into a prolonged correction. Simultaneously, Russia is tightening regulation of digital currencies, while the domestic stock market continues to operate under transparent rules and steadily pays dividends. Against this backdrop, retail investors face a difficult choice: where to allocate capital?
A debate has erupted in the professional community over whether private investor funds are flowing from cryptocurrencies into stocks, whether these instruments compete for the same individual, and how their risks and potential returns compare over a one-year horizon.
Is there a flow?
Expert opinions on this issue are sharply divided. Alexander Peresichan, CEO of TECHNOBIT, notes some capital movement. According to him, after Bitcoin's peak and subsequent correction, many market participants rushed to lock in profits or simply grew tired of volatility. Activity on crypto exchanges has declined, while the stock market in 2026 has offered an attractive earning opportunity due to good dividends and corporate transparency. Strict crypto regulation, in his view, adds uncertainty to the market, pushing some players toward legal and understandable instruments. However, he clarifies that this concerns only a small fraction of investors.
A completely different view is held by other analysts surveyed. Yaroslav Kabakov, Strategy Director at IC "Finam," does not observe a massive movement of funds. He reasonably believes that cryptocurrencies and stocks are fundamentally different investment strategies. Fedor Ivanov, Director of Analytics for AML/KYT at operator "SHARD," describes the opposite dynamic: according to his data, the Russian securities market is currently seeing an outflow of funds into bank savings and current consumption.
Yan Pinchuk, Deputy Head of Exchange Trading at WhiteBird, also sees no inflow into Russian stocks. He points to the fwd P/E multiplier, which stands at just 3.7 compared to the historical average of 6.2 over the last 10 years. Current valuations of domestic companies are more than 60% below their average norm. In his opinion, this completely refutes the hypothesis of an inflow of retail money into stocks, despite an abundance of factors—from geopolitics to the high central bank rate.
| Expert | Opinion on the existence of a flow |
| Alexander Peresichan (TECHNOBIT) | There is a flow, but insignificant. |
| Yaroslav Kabakov ("Finam") | No massive flow, different strategies. |
| Fedor Ivanov ("SHARD") | Outflow from stocks into cash and consumption. |
| Yan Pinchuk (WhiteBird) | No flow into stocks, Russian market is deeply undervalued. |
Risk and return: stocks vs. crypto
In assessing the risk-return ratio, experts were more unanimous. Roman Nosov, Director of Wealthy Client Relations at "BCS World of Investments," reminds that in Russia, both stocks and crypto are considered risky assets, but the risks and expected returns of digital coins are an order of magnitude higher. However, after a deep correction (as in crypto from the highs of July 2026, and in the stock market after the 2022 downturn), returns in both segments could be very high. Yet over a one-year horizon, the overall risk of cryptocurrency, he says, is undoubtedly higher.
Yaroslav Kabakov agrees with this view, noting that traditional "blue chips" offer much more predictable returns with significantly lower risk. Cryptocurrencies, on the other hand, retain the potential for both super-profits and instant sharp losses. Fedor Ivanov adds an important qualitative difference to the list: digital currencies have specific infrastructure risks that stocks fundamentally lack. For this reason, conservative investors will view the crypto market with caution, even with the advent of state regulation.
Do the instruments compete for the same investor?
Opinions diverge again on this issue, though most lean toward the theory of different audiences. Alexander Peresichan believes that the users of these products differ greatly. They overlap only in the segment of experienced traders with diversified portfolios. Moreover, among those who buy crypto, there are many people willing to tolerate high volatility but categorically unwilling to deal with official brokers and tax reporting. For them, crypto seems simpler and faster.
Fedor Ivanov insists that cryptocurrencies overall cannot be considered a direct competitor to the securities market. He points to scale: the current capitalization of the entire crypto market at $2.4 trillion is incomparable to stock capitalization. Essentially, these are two completely different financial worlds.
Yan Pinchuk suggests viewing the issue solely through the lens of economic cycles. Everything depends on the specific phase: retail investors go where the hype is. Currently, there is no hype in the Russian stock market, while the crypto industry is experiencing a crypto winter. These assets could actively compete for the same individual during a period of rapid growth, but none is expected in the near future. However, he notes that the best time to buy stocks is when no one likes them. He estimates the expected return on Russian stocks over a 5-10 year horizon as very high and holds a portion of his portfolio in them.
Conclusions
Most experts surveyed do not confirm the hypothesis of a massive flow of money from Russian retail investors from crypto into stocks. Only Alexander Peresichan notes such movement but calls its scale small. Yaroslav Kabakov speaks of an absence of mass transitions, while Fedor Ivanov and Yan Pinchuk point to reverse or neutral dynamics: outflow from stocks into savings and undervalued market valuations.
On risk assessment, analysts are unanimous: crypto remains a riskier asset with high potential returns, while "blue chips" offer a predictable and less volatile result. On the issue of competition for the end investor, the prevailing view is that of fundamentally different audiences, which overlap only in a narrow segment of experienced investors.
Analytical conclusion from Cryptalist: Indeed, it is premature to talk about a direct substitution of one asset class for another. Cryptocurrencies and Russian stocks serve different needs and attract different types of investors. However, the current extreme undervaluation of the domestic stock market amid high rates and geopolitical uncertainty creates a unique entry point for long-term investors who are not chasing fleeting hype. At the same time, the crypto market, despite the correction, retains its high-risk but high-return potential, especially for those willing to tolerate volatility and avoid traditional financial bureaucracy.