Crypto news

In the fall of 2025, Bitcoin updated its all-time high, but then the market plunged into a prolonged correction. Against this backdrop, Russia tightened regulation of digital currencies, while the stock market, on the contrary, demonstrates stability and predictable dividend payments. A logical question arises: are retail investors leaving the cryptocurrency market in favor of stocks?

A lively discussion has unfolded among experts on this matter. Opinions are divided not only on the scale of capital flow but also on the basic interpretation of competition between these two asset classes. I analyzed the key arguments of both sides to form an objective picture of what is happening.

Is there a capital flow?

Some experts do indeed record a movement of funds. According to their observations, after Bitcoin's peak, many market participants preferred to lock in profits or simply grew tired of extreme volatility. Activity on crypto exchanges has decreased, while the stock market, on the contrary, has presented attractive opportunities — high dividends and transparent company reporting. Tightened regulation has only added uncertainty, pushing some players toward more understandable and legal instruments. However, this concerns only a small share of investors — there is no mass exodus yet.

Other experts are more skeptical. They argue that no massive flow is observed. On the contrary, these directions represent fundamentally different investment strategies. Moreover, some analysts note a reverse dynamic: according to their data, there is currently a more noticeable outflow of funds from stocks, moving into bank deposits or current consumption.

The most compelling argument against the flow hypothesis is the state of the Russian stock market. The forward P/E multiplier is only 3.7, which is more than 60% below the average historical value over the last 10 years (6.2). Such low valuations amid geopolitical pressure, sanctions, and the Central Bank's high key rate completely refute the idea of private capital flowing into stocks. If money were truly moving, we would see rising prices, not their depressed state.

Risk and return: stocks vs. crypto

However, experts are unanimous in assessing the risk-return ratio. Both stocks and cryptocurrencies in Russia are considered risky asset classes, but the risks of digital coins are an order of magnitude higher. Historically, after deep corrections, returns in both segments can be high, but over a one-year horizon, the overall risk of cryptocurrency is clearly higher.

Traditional "blue chips" offer much more predictable returns with significantly lower risk. Cryptocurrencies, on the other hand, retain the potential for both super-profits and instant sharp losses. Additionally, digital currencies have specific infrastructure risks (exchange hacks, key loss, bridge issues) that are fundamentally absent in stocks. This is why conservative investors still view the crypto market with caution, even with the advent of state regulation.

Do the instruments compete for the same investor?

Here, opinions again diverge, although the majority leans toward the theory of different audiences. Users of these products vary greatly. They overlap mainly in the segment of experienced traders with a well-diversified portfolio for different economic cycles. However, among those who buy crypto, there are many people willing to tolerate high volatility. At the same time, they categorically do not want to deal with official brokers, tax reporting, and other bureaucracy. For this group, cryptocurrencies appear much simpler and faster. Therefore, even if reliable "blue chips" look more stable, the bulk of retail investors — especially the young and risk-prone — consciously remain in crypto outside the traditional market.

Other experts insist that cryptocurrencies in general cannot be considered a direct competitor to the securities market. The scale is incomparable: the current total crypto market capitalization of $2.4 trillion pales in comparison to stock market capitalization. These are two completely different financial worlds.

There is also a third view: it all depends on the specific phase of the economic cycle. A retail investor usually goes where the hype is. There is no hype in the Russian stock market, while the crypto industry is in the midst of a crypto winter. These assets could actively compete for the same person during a period of rapid growth, but none is expected in the near future. At the same time, the best time to buy stocks is when no one likes them. I assess the expected return on Russian stocks over a 5–10 year horizon as very high.

Conclusions

The majority of surveyed experts do not confirm the hypothesis of a massive flow of money from Russian retail investors from crypto to stocks. Those who record such movement call its scale insignificant. Others point to the absence of mass transitions or even a reverse dynamic — an outflow from stocks into savings and undervalued company market valuations.

In matters of risk assessment, analysts are united: crypto remains a more dangerous asset with high potential returns, while classic "blue chips" show predictable and less volatile results. Over a short-term horizon of up to one year, the risks of digital currencies are inherently higher.

On the issue of competition for the end investor, the prevailing opinion is that of fundamentally different audiences. They overlap only in the narrow segment of experienced and diversified investors. Key factors here are the current market cycle and the presence of mass hype. During boom periods, these instruments could well compete, but in conditions of mutual decline, points of intersection are virtually absent.

My expertise: the current situation is not a flow, but rather a redistribution of risks. Conservative investors are moving into cash and deposits, while the young and daring remain in crypto, awaiting a new bull cycle. Russian stocks are currently a unique opportunity for long-term investments with growth potential, but for the mass retail investor, they remain a "dark horse" due to geopolitical risks.