Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz: nuclear deal at risk of collapse
The Khatam al-Anbiya Central Command, the joint headquarters of Iran's armed forces, has officially announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping. The formal pretext cited violations of the Islamabad Memorandum by the United States and Israel. This decision breaks the fragile truce and brings back to the agenda one of the most critical risks for global energy markets.
The statement was made on June 20, 2026, and was instantly disseminated by all Iranian state media. The military described the closure of the strait as a "first step," threatening further measures if "aggression" continues. The conflict escalated after strikes by the United States and Israel in late February 2026, which led to the imposition of earlier restrictions on passage through the strait.
The world's energy artery is blocked
The Strait of Hormuz is not just a geographical point. Approximately 21 million barrels of oil and petroleum products are transported through it daily, accounting for about 20% of global liquid hydrocarbon consumption and a quarter of all seaborne oil trade (data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration). In addition to oil, major export shipments of liquefied natural gas from Qatar and the UAE pass through the strait.
Any disruption in this region instantly triggers price volatility, as alternative routes for Gulf countries are virtually non-existent. Markets had already priced in a relaxation of tensions after the signing of the memorandum, but now we see geopolitical risk returning with a vengeance.
The collapse of the Islamabad Memorandum
The 14-point Islamabad Memorandum, agreed upon around June 17, 2026, stipulated that Iran would make maximum efforts for the safe and free passage of commercial vessels during the first 60 days. The plan also called for the end of the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports. Shipping began to recover, contributing to a decline in energy prices.
However, the new statement from the Iranian army effectively nullifies this agreement. Tehran views Israel's ongoing actions in Lebanon as a violation of the memorandum. Previously, this document quickly led to a drop in oil prices, but the current situation once again draws attention to the issue of supply disruptions amid a potential long-term supply shock.
Notably, there is no official confirmation of the strait's closure yet — U.S. Vice President JD Vance indicates the opposite. This creates an information vacuum that markets will react to with heightened nervousness.
My analysis: The situation resembles the classic Iranian strategy of "managed chaos," where harsh rhetoric is used as a bargaining tool. However, the closure of Hormuz is a red line, beyond which a full-scale energy crisis begins. Investors should prepare for a sharp increase in volatility in commodity markets and a reassessment of risk premiums in oil futures.