Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz: the fragile ceasefire has collapsed
On June 20, 2026, the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Command—Iran's highest joint military headquarters—officially announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping. The reason cited was violations of the Islamabad Memorandum by the United States and Israel.
This decision completely nullifies recent diplomatic efforts toward de-escalation and once again plunges global energy markets into a state of high turbulence. Markets had only just begun to price in a reduction in geopolitical risks, and we are now witnessing a sharp reversal of the trend.
Statement from the Military Command
The Khatam al-Anbiya Central Command described the closure of the strait as a "first step" and warned of further measures if aggression continues. All key Iranian state media immediately disseminated this statement.
The conflict escalated following U.S. and Israeli strikes in late February 2026 and the imposition of earlier restrictions on passage through the strait. Now, the situation has entered a new, more dangerous phase.
Global Energy Consequences
Approximately 21 million barrels of oil and petroleum products are transported through the Strait of Hormuz daily, accounting for about 20% of global liquid hydrocarbon consumption and roughly a quarter of all seaborne oil trade, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
In addition to oil, major export shipments of liquefied natural gas from Qatar and the UAE pass through the strait. There are virtually no alternative routes for Gulf countries, so any disruption in this region instantly triggers price volatility.
Collapse of the Islamabad Memorandum
The 14-point Islamabad Memorandum, agreed upon around June 17, 2026, stipulated that Iran would make maximum efforts to ensure the safe and free passage of commercial vessels during the first 60 days. The plan also called for the U.S. to lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports. Shipping had begun to recover, contributing to a decline in energy prices.
The new statement from the Iranian military effectively nullifies these agreements. Tehran views Israel's ongoing actions in Lebanon as a violation of the memorandum.
Expert Analysis
From my perspective, this is not just another round of escalation but a strategic move by Tehran. Iran is demonstrating that control over the Strait of Hormuz remains its key trump card, and any attempts to bypass this factor will be harshly suppressed. Markets should prepare for a prolonged period of elevated oil and gas prices, and investors should reassess their risks related to energy-dependent assets.