Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz: the ceasefire has collapsed, markets in a turbulent zone
June 20, 2026 — The Khatam al-Anbiya Central Command, Iran's highest joint headquarters, announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping. The reason cited is violations by the United States and Israel of the terms of the recently signed Islamabad Memorandum.
This decision is a direct blow to the fragile truce that markets had interpreted as a signal of reduced geopolitical risks. Just a few days ago, traders were pricing in easing tensions, and now we are witnessing a sharp reversal. The Strait of Hormuz is the artery of global energy supply, and its blockade immediately brings the risk of a massive supply shock back to the forefront.
Statement from the Military Command
Khatam al-Anbiya called the closure of the strait a "first step" and warned of the possibility of additional measures if "aggression" continues. Iranian state media unanimously broadcast this statement amid the ongoing conflict, which escalated after strikes by the United States and Israel in late February 2026, as well as earlier restrictions on passage through the strait.
It is important to understand the context: just a few days ago, around June 17, a 14-point Islamabad Memorandum was agreed upon. The document stipulated that Iran would make maximum efforts to ensure the safe passage of commercial vessels for the first 60 days. In return, the United States was to lift the naval blockade of Iranian ports. Ship traffic began to recover, leading to a temporary decline in energy prices.
Disagreements over the Memorandum
The current statement by the Iranian military effectively nullifies these agreements. Tehran views Israel's ongoing actions in Lebanon as a direct violation of the memorandum and, therefore, considers itself free from its obligations.
Approximately 21 million barrels of oil and petroleum products are transported through the Strait of Hormuz daily — roughly 20% of global consumption and a quarter of all seaborne oil trade. Additionally, major shipments of liquefied natural gas from Qatar and the UAE pass through the strait. Any disruptions here have always amplified price volatility, as alternative routes for Gulf countries are virtually nonexistent.
Notably, U.S. Vice President JD Vance has already issued a rebuttal, stating the opposite and pointing to a long-term strategy to neutralize Iran's nuclear ambitions. There is no official confirmation from Washington regarding the blockade of the strait, creating an information vacuum and heightening market nervousness.
My analysis: The situation resembles a classic "one step forward, two steps back" escalation, where each side uses the slightest pretext to demonstrate strength. For the cryptocurrency market, this means a resumption of correlation with oil and gold as safe-haven assets. I expect short-term volatility in Bitcoin and increased interest in stablecoins for hedging geopolitical risks. The long-term consequences for the global energy supply chain could be far more severe than the current market reaction.