Crypto or stocks: where Russian investors' money is actually going
In the fall of 2025, Bitcoin updated its all-time high, but this was followed by a prolonged correction. Simultaneously, Russia is tightening regulation of digital currencies, while the stock market operates under clear rules and consistently pays dividends. This raises a natural question: are funds from Russian retail investors flowing from cryptocurrencies into stocks, or are these instruments competing for different audiences?
Expert opinions on this matter are divided. Alexander Peresichan (CEO of TECHNOBIT) notes a slight but noticeable shift. According to him, after Bitcoin's peak, some investors took profits and grew tired of volatility. Activity on crypto exchanges has declined, while the stock market in 2026 offered attractive opportunities—high dividends and transparent reporting. Stricter crypto regulation adds uncertainty, pushing some capital into legal instruments. However, he estimates the scale of this movement is still small.
Yaroslav Kabakov (Director of Strategy at Finam Investment Company) holds a completely different view. He is confident that there is no mass transition and cannot be, since cryptocurrencies and stocks are fundamentally different investment strategies with distinct risk and return profiles. Fedor Ivanov (Director of Analytics for AML/KYT at SHARD operator) even observes an outflow of funds from Russian stocks, which, in his opinion, is moving into bank deposits and current consumption.
Yan Pinchuk (Deputy Head of Exchange Trading at WhiteBird) provides a strong argument against the flow hypothesis: the forward P/E multiplier of the Russian market is only 3.7, compared to the historical average of 6.2. This means valuations of domestic companies are more than 60% below the norm. Such low valuations, in his view, completely refute the idea of an influx of private money into stocks. Pressure comes from geopolitics, sanctions, and the high key rate of the Central Bank.
Risk and Return: Crypto vs. Blue Chips
Experts are more united in assessing the risk-return ratio. Both cryptocurrencies and Russian stocks are considered risky asset classes, but the level of danger in digital currencies is an order of magnitude higher. Roman Nosov (Director of Wealth Management at BCS World of Investments) reminds that over a one-year horizon, the overall risk of crypto is undoubtedly higher, although after deep corrections, returns in both segments can be very high.
Fedor Ivanov adds an important qualitative difference: cryptocurrencies have specific infrastructure risks (exchange hacks, key loss, fraud) that stocks do not. Therefore, investors accustomed to traditional instruments will view the crypto market with caution, even despite the emergence of state regulation.
Do the Instruments Compete for the Same Investor?
Most analysts lean toward the theory of different audiences. Alexander Peresichan notes that audiences overlap mainly in the segment of experienced traders with diversified portfolios. However, among crypto buyers, there are many who fundamentally do not want to deal with brokers, taxes, and bureaucracy. For this group, cryptocurrencies seem simpler and faster.
Yan Pinchuk suggests looking at the issue through the lens of economic cycles. According to him, retail investors go where the hype is. Currently, there is no hype in the Russian stock market, while the crypto industry is experiencing a crypto winter. Assets could actively compete during periods of rapid growth, but under conditions of mutual decline, there are almost no points of intersection. At the same time, he estimates the expected return of Russian stocks over a 5–10 year horizon as very high and holds them in his own portfolio.
Conclusions from Cryptalist Analyst
The thesis of a massive flow of funds from crypto to stocks finds no convincing confirmation. Rather, we are observing market fragmentation: some conservative investors are moving to deposits, the most risk-tolerant remain in crypto, and experienced players diversify their portfolios but do not bet exclusively on one instrument. The Russian stock market is indeed deeply undervalued, but triggers are needed for a trend reversal—a reduction in the key rate, easing of geopolitical tensions, or the emergence of sustained hype. Until then, crypto and stocks will exist in parallel universes, only occasionally intersecting.
Expert Opinion: In my view, the current situation is not a flow but natural segmentation. Investors who came to crypto for high returns and anonymity are unlikely to turn to Russian blue chips with their 10-15% annual returns. And those who value predictability never considered cryptocurrencies as a primary instrument anyway. The markets are simply waiting for their moment.