The Strait of Hormuz is blocked: Tehran breaks the fragile truce
June 20, 2026. The Khatam al-Anbiya Central Command—Iran's highest joint headquarters—announced the complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping. The official reason: systematic violations of the recently agreed Islamabad Memorandum by the United States and Israel.
This decision is not just an escalation, but a direct blow to market hopes for a détente. Just a few days ago, after the signing of the 14-point memorandum around June 17, oil prices fell, and traders began pricing in a scenario of easing the blockade on Iranian ports. Now, that optimism is shattered by reality.
The Essence of the Conflict and the Significance of the Strait
Approximately 21 million barrels of oil and petroleum products pass through the Strait of Hormuz daily—this accounts for about 20% of global crude oil consumption and a quarter of all maritime trade in this commodity. Additionally, large shipments of liquefied natural gas from Qatar and the UAE transit through the strait. There are virtually no alternative routes for Persian Gulf countries, making this region a critical point for global energy security.
The Iranian headquarters described the closure as a "first step" and threatened further measures if "aggression" continues. The memorandum, I recall, stipulated that Tehran would make maximum efforts to ensure the safe passage of vessels within the first 60 days, while the United States would, in turn, lift the naval blockade of Iranian ports. However, according to Tehran, Israel's actions in Lebanon violated the terms of the deal.
Notably, there is no official confirmation of the closure from Tehran yet—U.S. Vice President JD Vance has already publicly stated the opposite. This creates informational uncertainty, which in itself is a powerful driver of volatility.
My expert assessment: The market has once again fallen into the trap of geopolitical bluff. Even if the closure of the strait is temporary or symbolic, the very fact of such an announcement undermines trust in the memorandum. For the crypto market, this signals rising volatility: oil shocks traditionally push investors toward safe-haven assets, including Bitcoin. In the coming days, we should expect a strengthening correlation between energy markets and digital assets.