Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz: ceasefire collapses, markets on the brink of shock
June 20, 2026. The Khatam al-Anbiya Central Command—Iran's highest joint headquarters—has officially announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping. The reason cited is the alleged continued violations of the Islamabad Memorandum by the United States and Israel.
This decision completely undermines the fragile ceasefire reached just a few days ago. It not only escalates geopolitical tensions but also creates a direct and immediate risk to global energy supply chains. Markets, which had already priced in some degree of de-escalation, are now forced to urgently reassess scenarios.
Statement from the Military Command
Khatam al-Anbiya described the closure of the strait as a "first step" and warned of further measures if "aggression" continues. Iranian state media unanimously broadcast this statement amid a conflict that began after U.S. and Israeli strikes in late February 2026 and the imposition of earlier restrictions on passage through the strait.
To recall: approximately 21 million barrels of oil and petroleum products are transported daily through the Strait of Hormuz—roughly 20% of global consumption and a quarter of all seaborne oil trade. These estimates come from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. In addition to oil, major export shipments of liquefied natural gas from Qatar and the UAE pass through the strait. There are virtually no alternative routes for Persian Gulf countries.
The Islamabad Memorandum: Fiction or Reality?
The 14-point Islamabad Memorandum, agreed upon around June 17, 2026, stipulated that Iran would make maximum efforts to ensure the safe and free passage of commercial vessels during the first 60 days. The plan also called for an end to the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports. Shipping began to recover immediately after this agreement was reached, helping to lower energy prices.
The new statement from the Iranian army effectively nullifies these agreements. Tehran views Israel's ongoing actions in Lebanon as a direct violation of the memorandum. Previously, this document quickly led to a drop in oil prices, but the current situation once again draws attention to supply issues amid a potential prolonged supply shock.
However, there is no official confirmation of the strait's closure yet—U.S. Vice President JD Vance indicates the opposite, adding to uncertainty. Nevertheless, the very fact of such a statement is a powerful signal for markets.
My analysis: Even if the closure of the strait turns out to be temporary or not fully implemented, the mere threat of it already embeds a risk premium of $5-10 per barrel in oil prices. For the crypto market, this signals a rise in volatility: investors will seek safe-haven assets, and Bitcoin may temporarily correlate with oil, but in the medium term, it will benefit as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical chaos. Watch the $90 per barrel level for Brent—a breakout there will trigger a massive capital shift.