Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz: the fragile truce has collapsed
On June 20, 2026, the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Command announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping. The official reason is alleged violations by the US and Israel of a recently signed memorandum.
This decision is a direct blow to fragile hopes for de-escalation in the region and once again raises the stakes in the global energy market. Markets, which had already priced in a reduction in geopolitical tension, now face a new wave of uncertainty.
Statement from the Military Command
The Khatam al-Anbiya Central Command—Iran's highest joint headquarters—called the closure a "first step" and warned of further measures if, in its view, aggression from the US and Israel continues. The information was disseminated through all major Iranian state media.
It is worth recalling that the conflict escalated after strikes by the US and Israel in late February 2026, which led to the imposition of earlier restrictions on passage through the strait.
The importance of the Strait of Hormuz to the global economy cannot be overstated. Approximately 21 million barrels of oil and petroleum products are transported through it daily—about 20% of global consumption and roughly a quarter of all seaborne oil trade, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. In addition to oil, major export shipments of liquefied natural gas from Qatar and the UAE pass through the strait. Any disruptions in this region have historically amplified price volatility, as alternative routes for Persian Gulf countries are virtually nonexistent.
Disagreements over the Islamabad Memorandum
The 14-point Islamabad Memorandum, agreed upon around June 17, 2026, stipulated that Iran would make maximum efforts to ensure the safe and free passage of commercial vessels for the first 60 days. The plan also called for the US to lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports. Ship traffic began to recover after this agreement was reached, helping to lower energy prices.
The new statement from the Iranian army effectively nullifies these agreements. Tehran views the ongoing actions of Israel in Lebanon as a violation of the memorandum.
Previously, the memorandum quickly led to a drop in oil prices, but the current situation once again draws attention to supply issues amid the potential for a prolonged supply shock.
However, it is worth noting that there is no official confirmation of the strait's closure yet—US Vice President JD Vance indicates the opposite, adding even more uncertainty to an already explosive situation.
Expert opinion from Cryptalist: The cryptocurrency market, which has correlated with oil prices in recent weeks amid expectations of a global recession, could receive an additional boost of volatility. The closure of Hormuz is a classic "black swan" for the energy sector, capable of triggering a sharp spike in inflation and, consequently, a reassessment of central bank monetary policy. For Bitcoin, this could serve as both a trigger for growth as a "safe-haven asset" and a reason for a decline amid a flight from risk.