Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz: the ceasefire is at risk of collapse
June 20, 2026. The Khatam al-Anbiya Central Command — Iran's highest joint military headquarters — has officially announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping. The reason cited is violations of the recently agreed Islamabad Memorandum by the United States and Israel.
This decision completely undermines the fragile ceasefire reached just a few days ago and once again puts global energy markets at risk. Markets had already priced in a de-escalation of tensions, and now that scenario is collapsing.
First Step and Warning
The Command described the closure of the strait as a "first step," warning of further measures if "aggression" continues. The statement was immediately broadcast by all key Iranian state media. The conflict, which began after U.S. and Israeli strikes in late February 2026, has entered a new, more dangerous phase. Iran had previously imposed restrictions on vessel passage, but a complete closure represents an escalation of a fundamentally different magnitude.
The World's Energy Artery
Approximately 21 million barrels of oil and petroleum products are transported through the Strait of Hormuz daily, accounting for about 20% of global consumption and a quarter of all seaborne oil trade. These figures are confirmed by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. In addition to oil, major exports of liquefied natural gas from Qatar and the UAE pass through the strait.
There are virtually no alternative routes for Gulf countries. Any disruption in this region instantly amplifies price volatility, as logistics become a critical bottleneck.
Collapse of the Islamabad Memorandum
The 14-point memorandum, agreed around June 17, 2026, stipulated that Iran would make maximum efforts to ensure the safe and free passage of commercial vessels for the first 60 days. The plan also called for the U.S. to lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports. Ship traffic began to recover, helping to lower energy prices.
The new statement from the Iranian military effectively nullifies these agreements. Tehran views Israel's ongoing actions in Lebanon as a direct violation of the memorandum. Previously, this deal quickly led to a drop in oil prices, but now we may witness a prolonged supply shock.
It is worth noting that there is no official confirmation of the strait's closure from the U.S. side yet. U.S. Vice President JD Vance indicates the opposite, emphasizing the strategy to neutralize Iran's nuclear ambitions. However, Tehran's words are already a market signal that traders cannot ignore.
Cryptalist Analysis: The market is currently in a zone of maximum uncertainty. If the closure of the strait is confirmed, we will see a sharp spike in oil prices above $100 per barrel, triggering a flight to safe-haven assets and, consequently, a short-term correction in the cryptocurrency market. However, in the long term, such geopolitical shocks traditionally increase interest in decentralized assets as a hedge against inflation and the instability of fiat systems.