Crypto news

This week, the energy market experienced a serious shock: the Brent benchmark crashed below the $80 per barrel mark, posting its deepest weekly drop in months at around 9%. However, the leading cryptocurrency reacted to this shock with striking indifference, losing only 1%. This price divergence calls into question the established view of a strong correlation between "black gold" and "digital gold," which many traders and analysts have long considered an unshakeable market rule.

Many market participants traditionally perceive cheaper energy as a "green light" for a subsequent rebound in the cryptocurrency market. However, the real intrigue lies not in commodity dependence, but in much deeper and more complex mechanisms: inflation expectations, positioning on exchanges, and, most importantly, the behavior of derivative financial instruments. Five-year statistics are relentless: the mathematical correlation between bitcoin and oil is a meager 0.036. For comparison, the coefficient ranges from +1 (perfect alignment of trajectories) to -1 (strictly opposite movement). The current level of 0.036 is not just a weak link; it is effectively its absence.

Why do traders persistently link bitcoin's bottom to falling oil prices?

Among traders, there is a widespread belief that after a sharp decline in oil, bitcoin often forms a global bottom. Some are expecting a new rise in oil prices in the second half of the year due to a possible escalation between Iran and Israel, as well as the anticipated introduction of fees for passage through the Strait of Hormuz. According to their calculations, it is this oil rebound that could trigger another wave of bitcoin sell-offs and form the year's low. However, as data shows, even when breaking down into calm and volatile periods, both indicators remain extremely close to zero. The latest thirty-day indicator dropped to -0.21, pointing to a short-term divergence in prices moving in opposite directions, but the overall link remains very weak. Simply put, no historical scenario allows oil quotes to be used as a reliable leading indicator for cryptocurrency.

When oil was rising, time-tested bitcoin investors did not panic

Historical examples clearly confirm this thesis. When the Brent benchmark rapidly rose towards its local peak around $119 in late March, the leading cryptocurrency's price did not fall but demonstrated enviable stability. During this same period, long-term investors holding coins in wallets for more than 155 days were steadily increasing their positions. Their net buying balance remained consistently positive until the beginning of June. This behavior marked an important reversal after major sell-offs in the second half of 2025. Such an upward trend clearly proves that the most patient large investors were not at all frightened by expensive fuel.

The only direct economic link between these two industries lies in the mining sector. Electricity is the primary resource for cryptocurrency mining, so an abnormally high cost of energy can reduce business margins. Nevertheless, the network's total hashrate, reflecting the overall computing power of the equipment, has been confidently increasing recently. This is happening despite the decline in the WTI crude price. Such growth in computing power against the backdrop of cheaper resources indicates miners' fundamental belief in the industry's long-term prospects. Notably, the computing power remained virtually unchanged even during the March rally in the hydrocarbon market.

Where is the real pressure on bitcoin coming from?

Since large investors and miners are demonstrating high resilience, the source of the current pressure needs to be sought elsewhere. The main catalyst is the derivatives market. Key warning signals are now clearly visible in the sector of derivative financial instruments. Bitcoin's open interest indicator, reflecting the total value of active futures contracts, increased from $21.83 billion to $23.45 billion since June 11. Simultaneously, the funding rate changed sharply, moving from a positive zone around +0.0023% into negative territory around -0.002%.

Let me remind you that funding represents regular payments between long and short traders to balance the price. A negative funding value means that sellers are forced to pay buyers to hold their positions. This dynamic clearly reflects the predominance of "bearish" sentiment. The increase in the number of open contracts along with the falling rate indicates that speculators are actively opening shorts, rather than rushing to buy the current dip.

There is an important market logic hidden in this situation. If cheaper commodities were indeed a powerful driver for cryptocurrency growth, exchange players would be massively opening long positions. However, in practice, short positions currently dominate. This situation creates ideal conditions for a short squeeze. In such a scenario, any random upward impulse will force "bears" to panic-close their positions and buy back coins, leading to an avalanche-like rise in quotes. And here lies the main mental trap for investors: if a short squeeze does occur, many commentators will rush to explain the price surge by falling oil prices, even though the upward movement will be triggered solely by the technical closing of margin positions, and not by commodity factors at all. Meanwhile, the overall background will remain negative, making the impulse short-lived.

My expert conclusion: As of today, the link between bitcoin and the oil market is too weak to have a real impact on quotes. While Brent is trading around $79 per barrel, bitcoin is holding the $62,800 level. This mark is roughly half of the all-time high of $126,200 from October. It is obvious that the next powerful price impulse for cryptocurrency will be dictated not by the price of a barrel, but by the decisions of the US Federal Reserve and conditions in the derivatives market. Investors should focus on macroeconomics and the behavior of speculators, rather than on oil futures charts.