McGlone and Dalio sound the alarm: overheating of US markets and double risk for Bitcoin
Two heavyweights of financial analysis — Mike McGlone of Bloomberg Intelligence and Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater — are warning almost simultaneously about a critical overheating in US markets. Their conclusions converge on one point: the current situation resembles the prelude to a powerful correction, and Bitcoin, as the most sensitive risk asset, could find itself at the epicenter of the storm.
McGlone: "Dominoes" are falling, and Bitcoin is the first tile
Mike McGlone sees clear signs of a market reversal. In his view, Bitcoin, which previously led the rally, is now the first to signal a trend change. The analyst highlights a critical indicator: the ratio of US Treasury bonds to gold appears to have bottomed out, something not seen in 40 years. This, he says, portends a "troubled summer."
Particularly alarming is the concentration of optimism. About 80% of market participants expect the S&P 500 index to rise by year-end, which is atypical for a US midterm election period, when a decline is usually observed. McGlone emphasizes that the US stock market capitalization relative to GDP is at highs not seen since 1928–1929. He draws a parallel with 2008, when oil first soared and then collapsed. He compares the current IPO surge to the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024, which preceded a market peak. Bitcoin's decline, in his logic, merely anticipates this upcoming reversal.
Dalio: AI bubble and "five forces" against the market
Ray Dalio paints a similar but more macroeconomic picture. He warns of a dangerous concentration of capital in a narrow group of companies related to artificial intelligence. His forecast is even gloomier: the real return on US stocks could range from -5% to -10% per year over a 5–10 year horizon.
Dalio assesses the situation through his concept of "five forces": the debt cycle and monetary policy, domestic politics, geopolitics, natural phenomena, and technological changes. He notes that historically, technological cycles are accompanied by inflated valuations, high volatility, and uncertainty about long-term winners. Therefore, making a large bet on a narrow group of leaders is extremely risky. His advice is diversification and risk-balanced portfolios.
What does this mean for Bitcoin?
Both opinions share a common idea: US markets are overheated and sustained by excessive optimism. For Bitcoin, this creates a double risk. On one hand, as the most liquid and volatile risk asset, it could be the first to fall during a broad reversal, as McGlone pointed out. On the other hand, if overvalued stocks indeed begin to deliver negative returns, investors seeking diversification may eventually flow into Bitcoin as an asset weakly correlated with the traditional stock market.
My expertise: The current situation is a classic example of the "risk paradox." Bitcoin is under pressure from a short-term correction due to overheated risk appetite, but this very overheating and the subsequent capital outflow from overvalued securities could become a catalyst for its new long-term cycle. The key question is not "will Bitcoin fall?" but "what level will become the entry point for institutional inflow?"