Bitcoin held steady amid geopolitical tensions: weekly results and key market signals
The past week was a real test of strength for the first cryptocurrency. Bitcoin made a sharp surge to $67,278, but by the end of the period it had almost returned to its starting levels, settling around $64,000. The main catalyst for the movement was news of a possible truce between the US and Iran. However, as expected, the geopolitical premium quickly evaporated amid ongoing disagreements and weak demand from institutional investors.
The Fed and the Macroeconomic Landscape
The key event was the first Fed meeting under Kevin Warsh. The regulator left the rate unchanged at 3.5–3.75%, but the rhetoric of the head of the agency turned out to be tougher than expected — he did not rule out a rate hike by the end of the year. This triggered a breakdown of the $64,000 level, while Friday's drop to $62,000 was caused by another round of uncertainty in the Middle East. The recovery to $64,000 by the weekend occurred against the backdrop of renewed negotiations and cheaper oil, which traditionally boosts interest in risk assets.
Altcoins Outperform Bitcoin
Despite Bitcoin's sideways movement on a weekly basis, the altcoin market showed notable strength. Solana gained 8.6%, Ethereum 3.5%, and the Hyperliquid token surged nearly 12%. This is a classic signal of capital flowing from "digital gold" into more volatile assets, often preceding a trend change. However, fundamental indicators do not yet confirm a sustainable reversal.
Institutional Outflows: A Warning Sign
Weakening interest in Bitcoin is confirmed by a record six-week outflow from spot ETFs. Over this period, products lost about $5.43 billion, and total capital fell to $78.3 billion — the level of November 2024. Ethereum funds also show negative dynamics for the sixth consecutive week with an outflow of about $10 million. The Fear and Greed Index, although rising from 18 to 23 points, remains in the extreme fear zone, indicating the dominance of pessimistic sentiment.
Russia: Cryptocurrency Officially Recognized as an Object of Theft
This week, the Supreme Court of Russia made important clarifications to judicial practice. Digital currency, digital rubles, and digital rights are now officially recognized as objects of theft. Additionally, the court specified the moment the crime is completed — the debiting of funds from the victim's account. This is a significant step in shaping the legal framework, which, on one hand, protects asset owners, and on the other, creates precedents for criminal prosecution.
Europe: MiCA Comes into Effect
ESMA reminded that from July 1, crypto companies without a MiCA license must cease servicing clients from the EU. According to Hogan Lovells, only 194 out of approximately 3,000 companies operating in the region have received official authorization. It is expected that about 75% of old platforms will leave the market. For users, this means account blocking and the need to urgently withdraw funds.
Ethereum: Funding Crisis and Quantum Protection
The Ethereum ecosystem may face a "slow funding crisis" in the next 3–9 months. According to former EF employee Trent Van Epps, key risks are related to the foundation's spending cuts and the end of the Client Incentive Program in 2026. At the same time, the proposal for post-quantum account protection SPHINCS+, costing just $0.07 per implementation, shows that technical innovations in the network are not standing still.
Expert Opinion: The current week showed that the market is in a consolidation phase, but macroeconomic and regulatory signals point to a high probability of further volatility. Bitcoin is staying afloat thanks to geopolitical hopes, but ETF outflows and the Fed's hawkish rhetoric are bearish factors that could play a decisive role in the coming weeks. Attention should be paid to altcoins: if the capital flow trend continues, we may see a new round of altseason.