Weekly Review: Bitcoin on the swings, Russia's Supreme Court recognizes cryptocurrency as an object of theft, and ESMA expels unlicensed players from the EU
The past week became a classic example of market schizophrenia: Bitcoin made a sharp surge to $67,000, but by the end of the period it had almost returned to its starting positions. Meanwhile, a landmark legal shift occurred in Russia, and the European regulator is finally tightening the screws. Let's break down the key events in detail.
Bitcoin: "roller coaster" without a change in the final price
The beginning of the week inspired hope: amid reports of a truce between the US and Iran, the first cryptocurrency jumped from $64,000 to a local maximum of $67,278. However, geopolitical optimism quickly faded, giving way to disagreements between the parties. Bearish factors, particularly weak demand from institutional investors, returned control to the market.
Additional pressure came from the first Fed meeting under Kevin Warsh. The regulator kept the rate at 3.5-3.75%, but the head of the agency admitted the possibility of raising it by the end of the year. This triggered a break below the $64,000 level on Thursday. The culmination was a drop to $62,000 on Friday amid another escalation of uncertainty in the Middle East.
The weekend brought a rebound: news of the US delegation's departure for negotiations, as well as cheaper oil, which stimulated capital inflows into risky assets, returned Bitcoin above $64,000. The week's result — near-zero dynamics for BTC, which allowed altcoins to perform much brighter: Solana gained 8.6%, Ethereum — 3.5%, and Hyperliquid surged almost 12%.
The fundamental picture, however, is alarming. Outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs reached a record six consecutive weeks, during which the products lost ~$5.43 billion. The total capital volume in these instruments shrank to $78.3 billion — the level of November 2024. This indicates a deep cooling of "smart money" interest in digital gold. The Fear and Greed Index, although it rose from 18 to 23 points, is still in the "extreme fear" zone.
Supreme Court of the Russian Federation: Cryptocurrency — now officially an object of theft
On June 16, the Plenum of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation made historic changes to the ruling on judicial practice in cases of theft, robbery, and assault. Digital rubles, digital rights, and digital currency are now officially recognized as objects of theft.
This is a crucial step in forming the legal framework. Previously, the status of cryptocurrencies was blurred, creating uncertainty in qualifying crimes. Now courts have received clear tools. Additionally, the Supreme Court clarified the moment of completion of theft of non-cash funds — from the moment the money is debited from the victim's account. If the theft is committed through several transactions but united by a single intent, it is qualified as one continuing crime.
ESMA: Last call for the unlicensed
From July 1, crypto companies without a MiCA license must stop servicing clients from the European Union. ESMA not only reminded of this but demanded that service providers prepare a business wind-down plan in advance.
The numbers speak for themselves: according to Hogan Lovells, by May, only 194 companies out of approximately 3,000 previously operating in the region had received official permission. It is expected that about 75% of old platforms will close or leave. For users, this means account blocking and forced withdrawal of funds.
This step is not just regulatory tightening but a market cleanup. Europe is betting on quality and safety, sacrificing quantity. In the coming months, we will witness a mass exodus of gray jurisdictions from the EU.
Ethereum Ecosystem: Funding crisis and quantum protection
Former Ethereum Foundation employee Trent Van Epps warned of a "slowly building funding crisis" over the next 3-9 months. Two key factors: reducing the foundation's annual expenses from 15% to 5% by 2030 and the end of the Client Incentive Program in April 2026, for which there is no replacement yet. According to Van Epps' estimate, the ecosystem needs $30 million to support developers. Otherwise, Ethereum risks losing critically important personnel and falling behind in preparing for challenges like quantum computing.
However, there is also positive news. EF Kohaku project lead Nicolas Consigny presented the concept of post-quantum account protection SPHINCS- for $0.07. The solution does not require a hard fork and is based on the SPHINCS+ signature standard. This is a temporary measure before the launch of the more efficient leanSPHINCS system, which will further reduce costs.
My expert opinion
The market is in a consolidation phase, where geopolitics and macroeconomics outweigh intra-crypto narratives. The outflow from ETFs is a worrying signal, but it also creates conditions for accumulation by patient investors. The legal recognition of cryptocurrencies in Russia is not just tightening but legitimization, which in the long term will attract institutional money. The European market after July 1 will become less volatile but more professional. Watch liquidity — the next major wave will begin when the Fear and Greed Index leaves the red zone.