Weekly Analysis: Bitcoin on the swings, Russian courts recognize cryptocurrency as property, and MiCA comes into effect
The past week showcased a classic market picture searching for direction. Bitcoin once again staged a "roller coaster ride," reacting to geopolitical signals, while fundamental indicators, such as outflows from ETFs, point to a cooling of institutional appetite. Concurrently, a landmark event for the legal framework occurred in Russia, and the European Union is finalizing preparations for total regulation.
Bitcoin: Geopolitics vs. Fundamental Flows
The week began with a sharp surge of the first cryptocurrency from $64,000 to a local high of $67,278. The catalyst was news of a potential truce between the US and Iran. However, as is often the case, euphoria quickly gave way to a correction. The first Federal Reserve meeting under Kevin Warsh, which kept the rate at 3.5-3.75% and allowed for a potential hike, added further pressure. By Thursday, Bitcoin had broken through the $64,000 level, and by Friday, amid renewed uncertainty in the Middle East, it dropped to $62,000. The weekend brought a rebound above $64,000 thanks to the resumption of the negotiation process and cheaper oil, which stimulated capital inflows into risk assets.
As a result, on a weekly basis, the price of Bitcoin remained virtually unchanged. This allowed altcoins like Solana (+8.6%) and Ethereum (+3.5%) to show more impressive dynamics. However, the key signal of the week was a record six-week outflow from spot Bitcoin ETFs, amounting to about $5.43 billion. The total capital in these products shrank to $78.3 billion, corresponding to the level of November 2024. This suggests that major players prefer to lock in profits and move into cash, seeing no convincing drivers for growth in the short term. The Fear and Greed Index, although rising from 18 to 23 points, is still in the "extreme fear" zone, confirming the predominance of pessimistic sentiment.
Russia: Cryptocurrency Officially Becomes "Property Subject to Theft"
On June 16, the Plenum of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation made a historic change to judicial practice, officially recognizing digital currency, digital rubles, and digital rights as items subject to theft alongside traditional property. This decision essentially closes the legal vacuum that previously existed. Now, the theft of crypto assets will be classified under articles of the Criminal Code, rather than remaining in a "gray area." Particularly important is the clarification of the moment the crime is completed — from the moment funds are debited from the victim's account. This decision creates clearer and more predictable rules of the game for all market participants.
Europe: MiCA Comes into Full Effect
The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) reminded that from July 1, all crypto companies operating in the EU must have a license under the MiCA regulation. Those who have not obtained or chosen not to obtain one must cease servicing clients from the European Union. According to expert estimates, only 194 companies out of approximately 3,000 operating in the region have received official authorization. It is expected that up to 75% of old platforms will leave the market. For users, this means account blocking and the need to withdraw funds from unlicensed exchanges. MiCA is not just regulation; it is a tectonic shift that will fundamentally change the landscape of the European crypto industry.
Expert Summary
The market is in a consolidation phase, where geopolitical factors temporarily outweigh fundamentals. The outflow from ETFs is a warning sign, indicating a lack of confidence among institutions. However, positive steps in regulation, as seen in Russia and the EU, are constructive in the long term, as they create a more mature and secure environment. Investors should prepare for continued volatility and closely monitor macroeconomic data.