Weekly Review: Bitcoin on the swings, cryptocurrency in Russia gains a new legal status, and MiCA pushes unlicensed players out of the EU
The past week was a real test for the first cryptocurrency. Bitcoin made a sharp upward surge, but then corrected just as sharply, returning to its initial levels. Meanwhile, a landmark event for the legal framework of digital assets took place in Russia, and European regulators began an active phase of "cleaning up" the market under MiCA.
Bitcoin: Rollercoaster Ride and Return to $64,000
The start of the week was marked by a surge of optimism. Against the backdrop of news about a possible truce between the US and Iran, the BTC price soared from $64,000 to a local high of $67,278. However, as I assumed, this growth was driven solely by geopolitical factors, which are extremely unstable. As soon as disagreements emerged between the negotiating parties, coupled with persistent bearish signals in the form of weak demand for spot ETFs, the market quickly reversed.
Additional pressure came from the first Fed meeting under Kevin Warsh. The regulator kept the rate at 3.5-3.75%, but the head of the agency allowed for the possibility of a rate hike by the end of the year. This triggered a breakdown of the $64,000 level on Thursday. The culmination came on Friday, when another round of uncertainty in the Middle East sent quotes crashing to $62,000. Only over the weekend, after the resumption of the negotiation process, was Bitcoin able to return to levels just above $64,000.
As a result, on a weekly basis, the BTC price remained virtually unchanged. This allowed a number of altcoins to show more impressive dynamics. Solana gained 8.6%, Ethereum — 3.5%, and the Hyperliquid token rose by almost 12%.
A key sentiment indicator is the record six-week outflow from spot Bitcoin ETFs. During this time, the products lost about $5.43 billion, and total capital under management shrank to $78.3 billion — the level of November 2024. The Fear and Greed Index, although it rose from 18 to 23 points, is still in the "extreme fear" zone. This indicates deep pessimism among institutional investors.
Supreme Court of the Russian Federation: Cryptocurrency as an Object of Theft
On June 16, the Plenum of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation made important changes to judicial practice. Now, digital currency, digital rubles, and digital rights are officially recognized as objects of theft. This decision closes a legal gap that had long existed in the Russian legal field. Henceforth, the theft of crypto assets will be classified under the same articles as the theft of traditional valuables.
The Court also clarified the moment of completion of the theft of non-cash funds — the crime is considered completed at the moment the money is debited from the victim's account. This is an important detail for law enforcement practice, which significantly simplifies proving the fact of a crime.
ESMA Issues Ultimatum: MiCA or Leave the EU
The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) reminded that from July 1, all crypto companies without a MiCA license are required to stop servicing clients from the EU. The regulator demands that a business wind-down plan be prepared in advance.
The situation looks dramatic: as of May, only 194 companies out of approximately 3,000 operating in the region had received official permission. It is expected that about 75% of old platforms will close or leave the European market. For users, this means account blocking and the need to urgently withdraw funds from unlicensed exchanges.
Ethereum: Funding Crisis and Quantum Protection
Former Ethereum Foundation employee Trent Van Epps warned of a "slowly escalating funding crisis" for the ecosystem. The main risks are the shrinking of the foundation's treasury and the end of the Client Incentive Program in April 2026. Without stable funding, Ethereum risks losing key developers and falling behind in preparing for challenges like quantum computing.
At the same time, an elegant solution for protection against quantum attacks was proposed within the network. The SPHINCS- concept would allow securing wallets for just $0.07 without the need for a hard fork. This is an intermediate stage before the launch of the more efficient leanSPHINCS system.
My analysis: The main takeaway of the week is that the market remains extremely sensitive to macroeconomic and geopolitical news. Bitcoin's lack of its own growth drivers against the backdrop of record ETF outflows is a worrying signal. In the near future, we will likely see consolidation in the $60,000-$65,000 range with a potential downside breakout if the external backdrop worsens. The decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation and the actions of ESMA are steps towards market maturity, but in the short term, they add uncertainty.