Weekly results: Bitcoin on a roller coaster, Russia's Supreme Court recognizes cryptocurrency as a subject of theft, and the EU tightens MiCA rules
The past week was marked by sharp fluctuations in the Bitcoin exchange rate, a landmark legal precedent in Russia, and strict deadlines for crypto businesses in the European Union. Let's break down the key events.
Bitcoin: Geopolitical swings and weak investor interest
The leading cryptocurrency once again demonstrated its sensitivity to geopolitical news. At the start of the week, quotes surged to a local high of $67,278 amid reports of a potential truce between the US and Iran. However, the euphoria quickly gave way to a correction: emerging disagreements between the parties and weak demand pushed the price back below $64,000. Additional pressure came from the first Fed meeting under Kevin Warsh, where the regulator kept the rate at 3.5-3.75% and did not rule out a hike by the end of the year. By Friday, Bitcoin had fallen to around $62,000 due to renewed uncertainty in the Middle East. Nevertheless, by the weekend, the market recouped its losses, returning above $64,000 thanks to the resumption of negotiations and cheaper oil, which spurred interest in risk assets.
As a result, the Bitcoin price remained virtually unchanged over the week, allowing several altcoins to show stronger dynamics. Solana gained 8.6%, Ethereum 3.5%, and the Hyperliquid token rose nearly 12%. However, the overall picture remains concerning: the Fear and Greed Index, although rising from 18 to 23 points, is still in the "extreme fear" zone. This is confirmed by a record six-week outflow of funds from spot Bitcoin ETFs, totaling approximately $5.43 billion. The total capital in these products has shrunk to $78.3 billion — a level seen in November 2024. Investors have clearly adopted a wait-and-see stance.
Russia: Cryptocurrency recognized as an object of theft
An important event for the Russian legal framework occurred this week. The Plenum of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation amended a 2002 ruling, officially recognizing digital currency, digital rubles, and digital rights as objects of theft. This decision effectively equates the theft of crypto assets to traditional property crimes. The court also clarified that the moment of completion of theft of non-cash funds is considered the moment funds are debited from the victim's account, and a series of consecutive debits united by a single intent will be treated as one continuing crime. This is a step towards greater legal certainty, which, on one hand, protects victims, and on the other, creates precedents for stricter regulation of circulation.
Europe: ESMA's ultimatum and Ethereum's funding crisis
The European regulator ESMA reminded that from July 1, all crypto companies without a MiCA license must cease servicing clients in the EU. According to Hogan Lovells estimates, out of approximately 3,000 firms operating in the region, only 194 have received official authorization. It is expected that about 75% of old platforms will leave the European market, leading to account blocking for ordinary users. This is a serious filter that will change the landscape of the European crypto industry.
Meanwhile, former Ethereum Foundation employee Trent Van Epps warned of a "slowly escalating funding crisis" for the Ethereum ecosystem over the next 3-9 months. The main risks are associated with the foundation's spending cuts and the conclusion of the Client Incentive Program in April 2026. According to his estimate, the ecosystem needs about $30 million for developers. Without stable funding, there is a risk of losing key personnel and falling behind in preparing for challenges such as quantum computing. In response to this challenge, the concept of post-quantum account protection SPHINCS+ was proposed, costing just $0.07, which does not require a hard fork.
My view on the situation
The past week clearly showed that the market is in a phase of uncertainty. Bitcoin is treading water, ETFs are seeing outflows, and geopolitics continues to pull the strings. Meanwhile, regulators worldwide — from Russia to the EU — are actively shaping new rules of the game. For long-term investors, this is a time for analysis and patience, not panic. Particularly interesting is the movement towards recognizing cryptocurrencies in Russian judicial practice — this could become a foundation for future legal circulation, but for now, it creates additional risks for dishonest participants.