Weekly review: Bitcoin at a crossroads, Russia's Supreme Court changes the rules of the game, and the EU tightens the screws
The past week was marked by a classic story of a "bear trap," important legal precedents in Russia, and a harsh ultimatum from a European regulator. The market is balancing between hope for geopolitical détente and the reality of weak institutional demand.
Bitcoin: False Start and Return to Basics
The market started the week on an optimistic note: rumors of a truce between the US and Iran pushed the leading cryptocurrency to a local high of $67,278. However, the euphoria quickly faded. As soon as it became clear that the parties were far from a consensus and the negotiation process was stalling, buyers vanished. The situation was exacerbated by the first Fed meeting under Kevin Warsh, where the regulator not only kept the rate unchanged (3.5-3.75%) but also hinted at a possible hike. For risky assets, this was a "red light." By Friday, Bitcoin had fallen to $62,000, but the weekend brought a bounce back above $64,000 thanks to news of a resumed diplomatic mission.
The key takeaway of the week is that the price barely changed, but the market structure deteriorated. Bitcoin dominance fell from 59% to 58.4%, ceding some capital to altcoins. Solana gained 8.6%, Ethereum 3.5%, and Hyperliquid showed growth of nearly 12%. However, the main alarm signal was a record six-week outflow from spot Bitcoin ETFs. During this time, the products lost about $5.43 billion, reducing total capital to $78.3 billion — the level of November 2024. This suggests that institutions are in no hurry to build positions, despite geopolitical "surprises."
Russia: New Rules for Crypto Assets
On June 16, the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation made historic changes to judicial practice in theft cases. Now, digital currency, digital rubles, and digital rights are officially recognized as objects of crime alongside traditional assets. This is an important step that finally provides legal certainty: if your cryptocurrency is stolen, it is not "nothing," but a criminally punishable act. Additionally, the court clarified that the moment a non-cash theft is completed is when the money is debited from the account. This closes many legal loopholes used by cybercriminals.
Europe: Time for MiCA is Running Out
The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) reminded that from July 1, crypto platforms without a license under the MiCA regulation must cease servicing clients from the EU. The regulator requires a business wind-down plan to be prepared in advance. According to estimates, out of 3,000 firms previously operating in the region, only 194 have received official authorization. This means that about 75% of old platforms will leave the European market. For users, this means account blocking and forced asset withdrawal. The market is consolidating, and this hits small players hard.
Ethereum Ecosystem Under Pressure
Former Ethereum Foundation employee Trent Van Epps warned of a "slowly escalating funding crisis" over the next 3-9 months. Key risks include treasury contraction (a plan to reduce spending from 15% to 5% by 2030) and the end of the Client Incentive Program in April 2026. Without stable funding, the ecosystem risks losing key developers and falling behind in preparing for quantum threats. Meanwhile, a post-quantum account protection (SPHINCS-) was proposed on the Ethereum network for $0.07 — without a hard fork. This is an interesting but temporary measure.
Analyst Commentary: The week showed that the market is stuck in a consolidation phase, and any upward movement is nothing more than a correction within a downtrend. Outflows from ETFs and the Fed's reluctance to ease policy are bearish signals. However, the recognition of cryptocurrencies as objects of theft in Russia is a positive legal precedent that could stimulate a long-term inflow of capital into the legal sector.