Weekly digest: Bitcoin tests the bottom, Russia's Supreme Court changes the rules of the game, and Europe prepares for an exchange exodus
The past week demonstrated the full depth of current market uncertainty. Bitcoin once again staged a "roller coaster ride," but ultimately remained almost unchanged, while regulatory events in Russia and Europe set the direction for long-term changes.
Bitcoin: False Start and Return to Basics
The beginning of the week gave hope to bulls: amid reports of a possible truce between the US and Iran, the BTC price surged to $67,278. However, as I expected, geopolitical optimism proved fragile. Disagreements between the parties and bearish fundamental factors quickly brought quotes back down to earth. The Fed meeting, which kept the rate at 3.5-3.75% and hinted at a possible hike, only added pressure, sending Bitcoin to $62,000. Only by the weekend, thanks to the resumption of the negotiation process, was the asset able to recover to $64,000.
The key takeaway of the week is that Bitcoin remains in a sideways trend, confirmed by a record six-week outflow from spot ETFs totaling $5.43 billion. Investors have clearly shifted their attention to altcoins: Solana gained 8.6%, and Hyperliquid nearly 12%. The Fear and Greed Index, although rising from 18 to 23 points, is still in the extreme fear zone, indicating persistent market nervousness.
Russia: Cryptocurrency Equated to Property
A landmark event occurred in the Russian jurisdiction. The Plenum of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation officially recognized digital currency, digital rubles, and digital rights as subjects of theft. This decision is a logical step in the legal field. Now, the theft of crypto assets will be classified under articles on theft, robbery, or assault, significantly simplifying the work of law enforcement. A particularly important nuance: the crime is considered completed from the moment funds are debited from the victim's account. This closes many legal loopholes.
Europe: MiCA Deadline and Exodus of Illegals
The European regulator ESMA reminded that from July 1, all crypto platforms without a MiCA license must cease servicing clients from the EU. The numbers speak for themselves: out of ~3,000 firms operating in the region, only 194 received licenses. It is expected that 75% of old platforms will leave the market. For users, this means account blocking and forced withdrawal of funds. The market is consolidating, and in my view, this is a positive signal for the long-term legitimacy of the industry, although in the short term it will create chaos.
Ecosystem Risks and Technological Breakthroughs
A former Ethereum Foundation employee warned of a "slowly escalating funding crisis" for the ecosystem. The foundation's budget cuts and the end of the Client Incentive Program threaten the network's development. For now, this is just a warning, but it cannot be ignored.
At the same time, Ethereum proposed an elegant solution for post-quantum account protection costing $0.07. The SPHINCS+ solution does not require a hard fork and could serve as a temporary measure before implementing a more advanced leanSPHINCS system. This is an important step towards the blockchain's quantum resilience.
My Analysis: The market is in a consolidation phase, and fundamental factors are now more important than speculative ones. Regulatory clarity in Russia and Europe is good, but it comes with short-term costs. Bitcoin will likely continue to trade in the $60,000-$65,000 range until a new powerful catalyst emerges. Investors should closely monitor fund flows in ETFs and the Fed's actions.