Analysts are sounding the alarm: overheating of the US stock market threatens bitcoin.
Two leading global analysts are warning about a critical overheating of US markets. Mike McGlone from Bloomberg Intelligence and Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater, are independently arriving at alarming conclusions: the US stock market is overvalued, and the concentration of capital in the technology sector carries serious risks. For Bitcoin, this means a double threat.
McGlone: "Dominoes" are starting to fall, Bitcoin is first
McGlone's analysis focuses on market cycles and Bitcoin's behavior. He notes that the ratio of US stock market capitalization to GDP has reached levels not seen since 1928–1929. In his view, the market has already begun moving toward a "once-in-a-lifetime reversal." Bitcoin, which previously led the rally, is now the first to signal a reversal, crashing downward. He draws parallels to 2008, when oil first surged and then collapsed, and to the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024, which preceded the market peak. McGlone emphasizes that the summer could be "turbulent," and about 80% of market participants predict growth in the S&P 500, which is an anomaly for a US midterm election year.
Dalio: Concentration in AI is a "bubble" that will burst
Ray Dalio views the situation through a macroeconomic lens. He warns that markets are now extremely concentrated in a small group of large companies related to artificial intelligence. His forecast is even more grim: the real return on US stocks could be between -5% and -10% per year over a 5–10 year horizon. Dalio uses his concept of the "five forces" (debt, monetary policy, domestic politics, geopolitics, natural phenomena and technological changes) to explain the situation. He believes that making a large bet on a narrow group of leaders is risky and advises investors to avoid excessive concentration by forming well-diversified portfolios.
My expert view: The synthesis of these two perspectives creates an extremely tense picture for the entire risk asset market. Bitcoin, as the most liquid and volatile asset, could indeed become the "canary in the coal mine"—the first indicator of a major reversal. However, if the stock market begins to deliver negative real returns, capital may start seeking refuge in assets that are weakly correlated with traditional markets. In this scenario, despite a short-term correction, Bitcoin could benefit in the long term as a diversification tool. The key question is the speed and depth of this capital flow.