Weekly Analysis: Bitcoin Trapped in a Range, While Russia Equates Cryptocurrencies to Property
The past week was marked by the classic struggle between "bulls" and "bears" in the bitcoin market, as well as a landmark legal precedent in Russia that finally removes digital assets from the gray zone.
Bitcoin: A Rollercoaster Ride with No Change in Final Price
The leading cryptocurrency showed high volatility but ended the week at virtually the same levels it started. The rise to a local high of $67,278 was triggered by positive news about a potential truce between the US and Iran. However, optimism quickly faded amid ongoing disagreements and weak demand from institutional investors.
Pressure on the market intensified after the Fed meeting, where it was decided to keep the rate at 3.5-3.75% and the possibility of a hike was acknowledged. This led to a break below the $64,000 level and a subsequent drop to $62,000 following news of a delay in the US Vice President's visit to Switzerland. The weekend brought a rebound above $64,000 thanks to renewed negotiations and cheaper oil, which stimulated capital inflows into risk assets.
Against this backdrop, altcoins showed significantly stronger dynamics: Solana rose by 8.6%, Ethereum by 3.5%, and the Hyperliquid token gained nearly 12%. This indicates a capital shift from bitcoin into riskier instruments amid the sideways movement of the flagship coin.
Confirmation of waning interest in bitcoin comes from a record six-week outflow from spot ETFs, totaling approximately $5.43 billion. The total capital volume in these products has shrunk to $78.3 billion, a level last seen in November 2024. The Fear and Greed Index, although rising from 18 to 23 points, still remains in the extreme fear zone, indicating the dominance of negative sentiment.
Russia: Cryptocurrency Recognized as an Object of Theft
The key event of the week for the Russian market was the resolution of the Plenum of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation dated June 16. Important changes were made to the document governing judicial practice in cases of theft, robbery, and assault (dating back to 2002).
The list of objects of theft now officially includes digital rubles, digital rights, and digital currency. This decision legally equates cryptocurrencies to material property, which, on one hand, creates a legal basis for protecting victims of theft, and on the other, paves the way for stricter control and prosecution for illegal operations with digital assets. The court also clarified that theft from a bank account is considered complete at the moment funds are debited.
Ethereum Ecosystem Under Financial Pressure
Former Ethereum Foundation (EF) employee Trent Van Epps issued a warning. In his view, the Ethereum ecosystem could face a "slowly escalating funding crisis" in the next 3-9 months. The main risks are linked to the shrinking EF treasury and the conclusion of the Client Incentive Program in April 2026. Epps estimates the ecosystem needs an additional $30 million to fund key developers. Without stable funding, he says, the project risks losing critically important personnel and falling behind in preparing for challenges such as quantum computing.
Europe Tightens the Screws: MiCA in Action
The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) reminded that from July 1, crypto companies without a MiCA license must cease servicing clients in the EU. According to Hogan Lovells estimates, only 194 out of 3,000 companies operating in the region had received official authorization by May. It is expected that up to 75% of old platforms will leave the European market, leading to account blockages for ordinary users.
Expert Opinion
The week showed that the market is in a consolidation phase, where geopolitics and macroeconomics continue to play a decisive role. However, in my view, the most significant event was the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation. This is not just a legal formality, but a clear signal that regulators worldwide are moving from observation to actively integrating cryptocurrencies into existing legal frameworks. For the market, this means the era of anonymity and impunity is coming to an end, and investors should be prepared for new rules of the game.