McGlone and Dalio sound the alarm: overheating of US markets and the fate of Bitcoin
Two recognized authorities in the world of finance, whose forecasts rarely go unnoticed, are simultaneously pointing to a critical overheating of American markets. Mike McGlone from Bloomberg Intelligence and Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater, agree on the main point: the current situation resembles the prelude to a serious correction, if not a full reversal.
Signal from McGlone: a "once-in-a-lifetime reversal"
McGlone, known for his deep analysis of market cycles, sees alarming parallels. In his opinion, the "dominoes" have already started to fall, and the first—just like at the beginning of the upward trend—was Bitcoin. He highlights a key indicator: the ratio of US Treasury bonds to gold, which appears to have reached a forty-year low. This is a historical signal foreshadowing a shift in sentiment.
According to the strategist, the current level of optimism is particularly telling. About 80% of market participants expect the S&P 500 to rise by the end of the year, which is an atypical and dangerous consensus for a US midterm election period. The stock market capitalization relative to GDP is now at highs not seen since 1928–1929. McGlone draws a direct parallel to 2008, when oil first soared and then crashed. The recent IPO boom, in his view, resembles the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024, which preceded the market peak. The falling Bitcoin, as the most sensitive asset, is already anticipating this upcoming reversal.
Dalio's perspective: concentration of capital in AI is a trap
Ray Dalio paints a similar but expanded macroeconomic picture. He warns of a dangerous concentration of capital in a narrow group of companies related to artificial intelligence. According to his forecast, the real return on US stocks over the next 5–10 years could be between -5% and -10% per year. This is not just a correction, but a prolonged period of stagnation.
Dalio assesses the situation through his "five forces" concept: debt and monetary policy, internal politics, geopolitics, natural phenomena, and technological changes. He emphasizes that historical technology cycles are always accompanied by inflated valuations, high volatility, and unclear long-term winners. Making a large bet on a narrow group of leaders is extremely risky. Instead, he advises investors to build well-diversified portfolios balanced by risk.
For Bitcoin, this is a double challenge. On one hand, as the most liquid and sensitive risk asset, it may fall first during a general reversal—which is what McGlone points to. On the other hand, if overvalued stocks indeed begin to yield negative returns, some capital seeking diversification could eventually flow into Bitcoin as an asset weakly correlated with the stock market. However, in the short term, in my view, pressure on BTC will only increase as sentiment deteriorates in traditional markets.