Weekly Review: Bitcoin at a Crossroads, While Russia Changes the Rules of the Game with Cryptocurrencies
The past week was eventful: the leading cryptocurrency once again demonstrated classic volatility, the Russian judicial system took an important step toward legalizing digital assets, and European regulators tightened requirements for market participants. Let's break down the key events and their potential consequences.
Bitcoin: Swings Without a Trend Change
The week began with a sharp surge in Bitcoin from levels around $64,000 to a local high of $67,278. The catalyst was news of a possible truce between the U.S. and Iran, which temporarily fueled interest in risk assets. However, optimism quickly faded: bearish factors, including weak demand from institutional investors and the Fed maintaining its key rate at 3.5-3.75%, pushed the price back to $64,000. By the end of the week, amid another wave of uncertainty in the Middle East, the rate dropped to $62,000, but recovered to $64,000+ by the weekend.
As a result, Bitcoin's price remained virtually unchanged on a weekly basis. This allowed several altcoins to show more impressive dynamics: Solana gained 8.6%, Ethereum rose 3.5%, and the Hyperliquid token surged nearly 12%. However, behind this facade of relative stability lies a troubling trend: outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs have continued for a record six consecutive weeks, reaching $5.43 billion. This signals a decline in risk appetite even among major players. The Fear and Greed Index, though rising from 18 to 23 points, still remains in the "extreme fear" zone.
Supreme Court of Russia: Cryptocurrency Is Not Just an Asset, but an "Object of Theft"
A landmark event in the Russian legal landscape: the Plenum of the Supreme Court of Russia officially included digital currency, digital rubles, and digital rights in the list of objects of theft. This means that cryptocurrency theft will now be classified under Criminal Code articles on theft, robbery, and assault. The court also clarified that the crime is considered complete from the moment funds are debited from the victim's account. This decision is a significant step toward forming a clear legal framework for digital assets in Russia, although it does not resolve all issues related to their circulation and taxation.
ESMA and MiCA: European Market Prepares for a Cleanup
The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) reminded that from July 1, all crypto companies without a MiCA license must cease servicing clients in the EU. According to Hogan Lovells estimates, out of approximately 3,000 firms operating in the region, only 194 have received official authorization. It is expected that about 75% of old platforms will either close or leave the market. For users, this means account blocking on unlicensed exchanges and a requirement to withdraw funds. This is a tough but logical step within the transition to a single regulated space.
Ethereum Ecosystem Under Pressure: Funding Crisis and Quantum Threat
Former Ethereum Foundation employee Trent Van Epps warned of a "slowly escalating funding crisis" in the Ethereum ecosystem. The main risks are linked to the foundation's plan to reduce annual spending from 15% to 5% by 2030 and the end of the Client Incentive Program in April 2026. According to Van Epps' estimate, about $30 million is needed to support developers. If funding is not stabilized, the ecosystem risks losing key talent and falling behind in preparing for challenges such as quantum computing.
At the same time, within Ethereum itself, a solution has been proposed to protect against quantum attacks. Kohaku project lead Nicolas Consigny presented the SPHINCS- concept, which would secure wallets without requiring a hard fork. The cost of implementing the protection would be only about $0.07. This is an important step, demonstrating that the community is aware of future threats and is preparing for them in advance.
My analysis: The week showed that the market is in a state of uncertainty. Bitcoin is treading water, ETFs are seeing outflows, and macroeconomic factors continue to exert pressure. At the same time, regulatory changes in Russia and the EU are long-term positive signals that lay the foundation for a more mature and secure market. Ethereum, despite internal funding issues, continues its innovative work, strengthening its position as a technological leader.