Weekly review: Bitcoin at a crossroads, while Russia takes an important step in the legal framework of cryptocurrencies
The past week has been a vivid illustration of the current state of the market: Bitcoin once again demonstrated its volatility, reacting to macroeconomic signals and geopolitical news, while regulators around the world continue to shape the regulatory framework. A landmark event occurred in Russia — the Supreme Court officially recognized digital currency as an object of theft, which fundamentally changes law enforcement practices.
Bitcoin: A Rollercoaster Ride on Geopolitics
The beginning of the week gave hope to bulls: the price of the leading cryptocurrency surged from $64,000 to a local high of $67,278 amid reports of a possible truce between the US and Iran. However, the euphoria quickly faded. Disagreements between the parties and the persistence of bearish factors, such as weak demand from institutional investors, led to a correction. A key moment was the US Federal Reserve meeting, which kept the rate at 3.5-3.75%, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh did not rule out a rate hike by the end of the year. This triggered a breakdown of the $64,000 level.
The culmination of the week was Friday's drop to $62,000, caused by another round of uncertainty in the Middle East. Only by the weekend, after confirmation of the departure of the US delegation for negotiations and against the backdrop of falling oil prices, did Bitcoin manage to recover its positions, returning to just above $64,000. As a result, the price remained virtually unchanged over the week, allowing altcoins such as Solana (+8.6%), Ethereum (+3.5%), and the Hyperliquid token (+12%) to show more impressive dynamics.
My analysis: This "sideways" dynamics of Bitcoin against the backdrop of sharp intraday fluctuations is a classic sign of consolidation. The market is waiting for a clear signal — either a breakout above $68,000 to resume the uptrend, or a consolidation below $62,000, which would open the door to a deeper correction. The six-week record outflow from spot ETFs of $5.43 billion is an alarming signal, indicating a loss of risk appetite among large players.
Russia: Cryptocurrency Equated to Property
On June 16, the Plenum of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation introduced crucial changes to the resolution on judicial practice in cases of theft, robbery, and assault. From now on, digital rubles, digital rights, and most importantly, digital currency (cryptocurrency) are officially recognized as objects of theft. This means that the theft of Bitcoin or Ether will now be classified under criminal articles similar to the theft of ordinary money or property.
The court also provided an important clarification: the moment of completion of the theft of non-cash funds is the debiting of money from the victim's account. Furthermore, if several debits from the account of one victim are united by a single intent, they are considered one continuing crime. This significantly simplifies the work of law enforcement agencies and closes the legal vacuum that previously allowed criminals to evade responsibility.
Regulatory Squeeze: Europe Tightens the Screws
ESMA (European Securities and Markets Authority) reminded crypto platforms: from July 1, servicing clients from the EU without a MiCA license will be impossible. The regulator requires companies to prepare business wind-down plans in advance. According to estimates, only 194 out of 3,000 companies previously operating in the region have received official permits. It is expected that about 75% of "old" platforms will leave the European market, leading to the blocking of user accounts and forced withdrawal of funds. This is a serious blow to the decentralized nature of cryptocurrencies, as it forces users to migrate to regulated but centralized platforms.
Ethereum Ecosystem: A Warning of Crisis
Former Ethereum Foundation employee Trent Van Epps issued an alarming statement: the Ethereum ecosystem could face a "slowly escalating funding crisis" in the next 3-9 months. The main risks are associated with the foundation's plan to reduce annual spending from 15% to 5% by 2030, as well as the end of the Client Incentive Program in April 2026, a key mechanism for funding developer teams. According to Van Epps, the ecosystem needs about $30 million to support developers, and without stable funding, it risks losing critically important personnel and falling behind in preparing for future challenges, including quantum computing.
Expert commentary: The market is going through a phase of reassessment. While Bitcoin searches for direction, fundamental changes in the legal field of the Russian Federation and the tightening of regulation in the EU are laying the foundation for a new stage in the industry's development. The old "Wild West" models are becoming a thing of the past, giving way to a more structured but also more controlled environment. For investors, this means it is time to pay special attention not only to price dynamics but also to regulatory risks in their jurisdictions.