Weekly Review: Bitcoin on a roller coaster, Russia's Supreme Court recognizes cryptocurrency as a subject of theft, and ESMA pushes unlicensed entities out of the EU market
The past week was a real test of strength for the crypto market. Bitcoin swung from $62,000 to $67,000 and back again, Russian courts finally provided a clear definition of cryptocurrency in criminal law, and the European regulator ESMA began a market cleanup, reminding everyone of the imminent enforcement of strict MiCA rules. Let's break down the key events.
Bitcoin: A Rollercoaster Driven by Geopolitics and Weak Demand
The week started with a sharp surge in the leading cryptocurrency. Amid reports of a potential truce between the US and Iran, the BTC price jumped from $64,000 to a local high of $67,278. However, as is often the case, euphoria quickly turned to disappointment. Disagreements between the parties, a lack of specifics on the deal, and a generally bearish backdrop characterized by weak institutional demand led to a correction.
The key trigger for the decline was the US Federal Reserve meeting. The regulator kept the rate unchanged (3.5-3.75%), but the Fed Chair hinted at the possibility of a rate hike before the end of the year. This acted as a cold shower for risky assets, and Bitcoin broke below the $64,000 level. By Friday, the situation worsened due to renewed uncertainty in the Middle East (the cancellation of the US Vice President's visit to Switzerland), and the price dropped to $62,000.
Nevertheless, the weekend brought corrections: the US delegation eventually proceeded to negotiations, and falling oil prices triggered capital inflows into risky assets. As a result, Bitcoin recovered its losses, returning to just above $64,000. On a weekly basis, the price remained virtually unchanged, allowing several altcoins to show more impressive dynamics. Solana gained 8.6%, Ethereum rose 3.5%, and the Hyperliquid token jumped by 12%.
However, beneath Bitcoin's apparent stability lies a worrying signal. Investor interest in spot Bitcoin ETFs has been waning for the sixth consecutive week. During this period, outflows totaled approximately $5.43 billion, reducing the total capital under management to $78.3 billion – a level last seen in November 2024. This suggests that major players are not yet ready for aggressive buying and prefer to lock in profits or move to cash.
My opinion: Bitcoin's weekly dynamics are a classic example of a market stuck in a waiting pattern. Geopolitics and macroeconomics are pulling in different directions, and institutional demand via ETFs has yet to reverse the trend. As long as the Fear and Greed Index remains at 23 points (extreme fear), it's premature to talk about a reversal. The market is currently consolidating, and the next move requires a powerful catalyst – either positive (e.g., a real truce in the Middle East) or negative (tightening of Fed rhetoric).
Russia: Cryptocurrency Officially Recognized as an Object of Theft
On June 16, the Plenum of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation introduced important changes to judicial practice. From now on, digital currency, digital rubles, and digital rights are officially recognized as objects of theft, on par with traditional assets. This is undoubtedly a significant step in legal regulation that will close many legal loopholes.
The court also clarified that the moment a non-cash theft is completed is the moment the funds are debited from the victim's account. This is crucial for qualifying cybercrimes. Furthermore, if multiple debits from a single victim's account are united by a single intent, it will be considered one continuing crime rather than several separate episodes. This decision significantly simplifies the work of law enforcement and provides them with clear tools to combat cryptocurrency fraudsters.
Europe: ESMA Begins Cleanup. Crypto Exchanges Without MiCA Must Leave
The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) reminded all crypto companies that from July 1, only those holding a MiCA license can serve clients in the EU. The regulator demanded that unlicensed platforms prepare a business wind-down plan in advance.
The numbers here are telling. According to lawyers' estimates, only about 194 companies out of the roughly 3,000 previously operating in the region had obtained official permits by May. This means that up to 75% of the old platforms will be forced to leave the European market. For ordinary users, this will result in account blocks and the urgent need to withdraw funds. Exchanges without licenses will stop accepting deposits and will likely begin mass position closures.
My comment: MiCA is not just regulation; it's a "storm" that will cleanse the EU market of unscrupulous players and "gray" zones. For large, transparent exchanges, this is undoubtedly a plus – they will gain legitimate access to a huge market. But for users and small projects, it means short-term turbulence. I expect to see a surge in trading volumes and possibly arbitrage opportunities in the coming weeks as liquidity is redistributed.
In addition to these key events, the week also featured: a warning about the risk of an Ethereum funding crisis from a former EF employee, a proposal for post-quantum protection of Ethereum accounts for $0.07, and news that JPMorgan stated the mining economy is deteriorating. All of this only confirms that the crypto industry is entering a new, more mature, and regulated phase of its development.