Weekly Review: Bitcoin tests investors' nerves, while Russia brings clarity to the status of cryptocurrencies
The past week was marked by sharp movements in the market of the first cryptocurrency, an important legal precedent in Russia, and tightening regulatory requirements in the European Union. Let's break down the key events that shaped market sentiment.
Bitcoin: A Rollercoaster Ride Amid Geopolitics and Macroeconomics
The week for Bitcoin began with an optimistic surge. The price jumped from around $64,000 to a local high of $67,278 following news of a potential truce between the US and Iran. However, the euphoria quickly faded. The market faced bearish factors: weak demand and ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East settlement.
The key moment was the meeting of the US Federal Reserve, led by Kevin Warsh. The decision to keep the key interest rate at 3.5-3.75% and hints at a possible rate hike by the end of the year put pressure on risk assets. On Thursday, Bitcoin broke through the $64,000 level, and on Friday it even crashed to $62,000 after another round of geopolitical tensions.
Nevertheless, the weekend brought a recovery. News of the resumption of the negotiation process and falling oil prices revived investor interest, pushing the price back up to just above $64,000. Notably, on a weekly basis, the price of Bitcoin remained virtually unchanged, allowing altcoins to show more impressive dynamics: Solana gained 8.6%, Ethereum — 3.5%, and the Hyperliquid token rose by almost 12%.
However, fundamental indicators are cause for concern. Outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs have continued for a record six consecutive weeks, totaling $5.43 billion since mid-May. The total capital in these products has shrunk to $78.3 billion — a level seen in November 2024. The Fear and Greed Index, although it rose from 18 to 23 points, is still in the "extreme fear" zone, indicating a predominance of pessimistic sentiment.
Supreme Court of the Russian Federation: Cryptocurrency Officially Recognized as an Object of Theft
On June 16, a landmark event occurred for Russian jurisprudence. The Plenum of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation amended a 2002 ruling, officially adding digital currency, digital rubles, and digital rights to the list of objects of theft. This decision closes a legal loophole and provides law enforcement agencies with clear tools for qualifying crimes related to the theft of crypto assets.
The court also clarified an important procedural point: the theft of non-cash funds (including cryptocurrency) is considered complete from the moment they are debited from the victim's account. Furthermore, if several debits were part of a single intent, they will be considered as one continuing crime. This decision, in my view, is an important step towards integrating cryptocurrencies into the legal framework of Russia, albeit with a focus on criminal law protection.
ESMA Issues Ultimatum: Leave the EU or Obtain a License
The European regulator ESMA reminded crypto exchanges and platforms that, starting July 1, servicing clients from the EU without a MiCA license will be illegal. Companies are required to prepare plans for winding down their business in the region in advance. According to Hogan Lovells, only 194 companies out of approximately 3,000 previously operating in Europe had received official permission by May. It is expected that up to 75% of old platforms will leave the market.
For users, this means account blocking on unlicensed exchanges and the need to withdraw funds. This is a serious blow to the market, which will lead to consolidation and strengthening of the positions of large, regulated players.
Ethereum Ecosystem Under Financial Pressure
Former Ethereum Foundation employee Trent Van Epps warned of a "slowly escalating funding crisis" within the Ethereum ecosystem. The main risks are linked to the foundation's philosophy of decentralization, which, in his opinion, leads to inefficient resource allocation. Two key factors: the plan to reduce annual treasury spending from 15% to 5% by 2030 and the conclusion of the Client Incentive Program in April 2026 without a visible replacement. According to Van Epps' estimates, the ecosystem requires about $30 million to stably support developers. Without this, Ethereum risks losing key personnel and falling behind in preparing for future challenges, including quantum computing.
Post-Quantum Protection for Ethereum for $0.07
Nicolas Consigny, project lead at Kohaku within the Ethereum Foundation, proposed the SPHINCS- concept — a solution for protecting accounts from attacks by quantum computers. The method, based on the SPHINCS+ signature standard, does not require a hard fork and would cost approximately $0.07 per operation. This is an intermediate step before launching the more efficient leanSPHINCS system. The solution aims to mitigate risks for the current elliptic curve digital signature algorithm.
My View: Despite Bitcoin's weekly stagnation, the market is in a state of fragile equilibrium. Geopolitical risks and macroeconomic uncertainty continue to exert pressure, yet structural changes in legislation (Russia, EU) and technological development (Ethereum's post-quantum protection) point to the long-term maturation of the industry. The current correction is not a crash, but rather a regrouping of forces before the next phase of growth. Investors should closely monitor macroeconomic data and regulatory news.